While the war started off with a bang, it is clearly going to end on a whimper (at least not on r/eve).
While most EVE players live for blowing up ships and Keepstars, at this point, it’s actually looking like Goonswarm is mostly fighting a one-sided war and, honestly, now that I think about it makes the Horde look, well dignified and perhaps justified.
It’s one thing to glass patrolled and heavily fortified sov null, quite another to let your rental sov null change hands. After all, the Horde, probably makes good money already, that losing Insmother isn’t going to bankrupt them. While losses are always to be expected, especially in war, I would argue at some point someone did the math that losing more ships in terms of production, fitting, and skill points is going to be more expensive then losing several Keepstars and a handful of renters that probably are going to rent from the Goons or whoever ultimately ends up controlling the system.
I also think that watching the Goons glassing a clearly abandoned system with reckless disregard for self-awareness is kind of cringe at this point.
Is the war over? Honestly? It feels like Goons made their point, Horde said “No, thanks” and everyone will autopilot home tomorrow satisfied and dream up the next thing to be salty about.
At least the ISK is flowing. See you Thursday night with my Market Report.
So as we have had a day without a scrimish between the expansionist Goonswarm/Imperium (Goons)and the PandemicHorde (Horde) after the Goons erected a Foritzer on the Horde’s Keepstar Grid in The Great Wildlands last month. Tonight, the Foritzer completes its achoring, basically meaning it is either fight or flight for the Horde (my intel has the Horde running, but who knows…).
If successful, what will that mean for null sec, the Goons’ plans, and if PandemicHorde can keep going after all the dust settles remains to be seen, I, however, am interested in the ISK numbers of the Ferox Navy Issue, which was the hull that had the greatest destruction across both sides in the 04 June battle.
I pulled the updated market data today and saw the final total volumes of the Ask/Sell and Bid/Buy markets of the Ferox Navy from yesterday, the 05th, and thought I would show my findings before the big party tonight, some time around 11pm EST USTZ.
Observations
Here we see that the inversion of the market, that I warned against, happens with a supply that begins to outstrip the demand for buyers. Sellers (the ask line) now can’t find a market in which support top dollar ask prices and either fill a much cheaper buy order or put up the hull on for a lower profit they could have gotten, but one that has diminishing returns.
We see that in the next graphs:
In the Ask Graph we see the big spikes, but then we see a drop after 2 June. When the Ask/Buy volumes switch with more Ask on the market, we see that price start to drop.
The buy/bid price is also because now there are more buyers that can wait for the bids to be filled and they can command a better price because the going ask is now effectively now too high.
As you can see, as the bid orders raise in price and when the ask orders shrink in price the spread changes are dramatic.
As you can see here on the 27th of May, circled in fuchsia on both charts, the lowest ask volume is also when the change in the spread is largest, suggesting a rise in the ask price. The same thing happens on 2 June, with the points circled in purple.
Analysis
If you were an industrialist that got going with Ferox Navies after the Goons dropped the Fortizer, you probably caught the first wave if you were early enough. If you started producing after the Goons declared war, you probably caught the second wave after a couple of days of waiting. But if you were not in the market by 02 June, your luck ran out and the volume rises to the inversion of the market.
From June 02nd and June 05th, the sell price dropped 15.42% as the volume went up 54.62%, showing just how fickle the market can be when there is a big war and a large destruction of hulls.
Overall, it seems that the Ferox Navies were purchased by an alliance early on as there is that large glut of immediate sells and that crashed dramatically once the Goons dropped the Fortizer.
It does look like the Goons were preparing for war before the Fortizer event, putting in bid orders for the hull well before war was ever declared and the Ferox Navies needed. The Horde went after the Rokh initially and that fleet was decimated, forcing them into the Ferox Navies in the 04 June battle, which was still resoundly destroyed by the Goons.
Recommendations
Start your production of Ferox Navies (unless the doctrines change) at the first sign of trouble between null sec alliances. The producers that started production after June 02, trying to capitalize on the day’s jump, a couple of days after the war declaration, were way too late and effectively lost money in The Forge markets.
If you are central intel for your null sec alliance, keep your eyes on the market orders, there was movement way before anything was happening with the Goons, and while there is no guarantee those markets are moving because of another alliance, keeping tabs on doctrine hulls in the market can be a sly way of predicting movement of, well, at least someone.
Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this war and potential battle for the ages? Did you get caught in that market volume inversion and now operating at a loss?
If you need more in-depth information on the hull or others (Hearing there’s a need for the Vulture among both or just one) then feel free to contact me either in game at ‘Matt Shigella’, or online @godislobster on Discord or email me at mattshigella@gmail.com and we can talk about how I can get you the info you need.
Gird your loins, the Goons and Horde are back at it!
At least two recent battles have resulted in the Goons destroying the Horde fleet, so for this week’s free Market Report, I am going to focus on the five ship types that had 40 or more losses in the June 04, 2025 battle in N3-JBX.
Market Scope
Commodities – Ships with 40+ losses on 04 June 2025 in N3-JBX allied with Goons and Horde
The five ships are:
Ferox
Ferox Navy
Harpy
Rokh
Tempest Fleet
Vulture
Sample Market – The Forge
Timeframe – 01 May to 04 June 2025 23:30 USTZ EST
Trends
Only realized I have keeptared my way into these graphs after the fact and can’t access my computer until late.
As you can see here, the Ferox Navy is really the most interesting trend line. While the Bid/Buy market remained stable over time, the Ask/Sell market spiked causing the spread % to 30D average spread to rise dramatically.
As you can see there was a steep crash in Ferox Navy volume when the Goons dropped their Fortizar on the Horde’s Keepstar grid (24 May 2025). Given that both sides lost a total of 187 ships of this type in the 04 June battle, this was clearly the lead up to war being declared, but also in prep that massive scale battles were ahead.
Analysis
Ferox Navy is an affordable faction battlecruiser that is heavy hitting but also enough of a tank that it can survive long enough on the battlefield to do lasting damage to the other side. Therefore, it is a strong choice for industrialists to manufacture, which the volume before the incident suggests: more availability = cheaper = more likely to not be too devastated financially when things go south. Given the Horde’s alleged, at least in the past, penchant for frugality and its large loss of Rokhs in the 03 June Battle, the emphasis on cost effectiveness drives at least some of the effect on the spike in prices.
Given that the sell volume is recovering, industrialists have picked up on the market but they have to be careful of driving prices down due to market saturation.
Recommendations
Industrialists – Keep producing but don’t overstretch your capabilities and oversaturate the market, small batches of Ferox Navies will keep the money flowing and won’t cause steep declines in profit. If you aren’t already invested in Ferox Navy production, I don’t see an opening here for you.
Station Traders – If you are allied with either, you can go ahead and manipulate the market to your team’s advantage, but be warned there could be losses should the volume trends reverse and the price drops. If you don’t care and want to make them both suffer, start buying up ships in bulk and then flipping to make a nice profit.
Further Actions – Keep your eye on the Rokh hull. As of 15:15 on 05 June US EST there has no battle between the two, but with the downtime, this allows manufacturers to really make a dent in that market considering Horde’s extensive use of them, but check both ask/sell and bid/buy volumes before doing anything.
Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this latest escalation and if this post was helpful.
This is a free and weekly sample of a T1 Market Trend Report, for more info on what I can offer you, check out my Services page.
If you need more in-depth information on the hulls shown here then feel free to contact me either in game at ‘Matt Shigella’, or online @godislobster on Discord or email me at mattshigella@gmail.com and we can talk about how I can get you the info you need.
I’m Matt Shigella, a PC in the online metaverse of EVE Online.
So while everyone knows EVE as the space MMO that is primarily PVP action and warfare, I’m on the other side of the battlefield…
Market PVP
While it may not be the gunfire and explosions, the type of warfare I specialize in is the leveraging of data to exploit the markets to make stacks of ISK.
Like the knowledge of fitting and doctrine design, knowledge of the economy and how to capitalize on short-term and long-term trends in the markets is key difference in simply making ISK versus building wealth and dominating the markets.
This website is primarily a host for my business services, Auric Quanta Strategies, however, I will be writing weekly posts about the economy and release market data so the general trader can use to make bids on and sharpen your ISK-making skills
Auric Quanta Strategies 