Auric Quanta Strategies

Category: Commentary

  • That’s a Gneiss Venture you got there: Pyerite, Low Sec, and CCPlease

    Pyerite seems to be the consistent story from week to week this month, and the elephant in the room when online with my corp. In the past couple of months, I have been considering creating a mineral index because of its centralness to industry, and because for the past two weeks, all I have thought about is pyerite, industry, and markets, leaving less time for other things to enjoy.

    In the resulting discussions from last week’s post on July’s MER, someone chimed in with the fact that other sources of pyerite are going unbuffed by CCP, both R4 moon ore and Gneiss.

    The problem with R4 moon mining is unprofitable in comparison to Metenox moon mining, with R4 moons losing their luster as other moon goo becomes more popular with miners, industrialists, and market players. The problem with that is, well, people are leaving pyerite trapped in the moon and not trading in Jita.

    Secondly, while low sec enjoys some of the best fights in the game, the mining deposits are a shadow of its High and Null secs brethren, meaning that gneiss is only available for mining in sectors that aren’t conducive to bringing out a big mining fleet. At least with Null Sec, the idea is that the alliances out there are often running their own fleets in the safety of their bloc.

    As one can see from these graphs, there isn’t much in the way of gneiss making large profits. While these aren’t demand graphs, clearly the lack of bid activity signals that, at least Iridescent Gneiss, is not in hot demand from buyers.

    It is important to note that while the spread percentage of Iridescent Gneiss has skyrocketed in the past month, it may not last. Given that all three types shown here do seem to be on the rise, with the ask price, along with a weakening bid price, the margins seem to suggest that the market has two ways it can go, and it is in a standoff.

    Running the volume numbers on Prismatic Gneiss suggests that there is significant demand; however, it is the ask market controls the profit margins. This sets up a price tension that one side is going to have to cave on. Given that the ask volume is trending down, the bid market is clearly meeting the sellers at the ask price, thus boosting the profit margin. Then this drops demand by extension, but also creates a problem with buyers snapping up all the available ore on the market, creating some issues in the long run with supply.

    These graphs show CCP is not incentivizing low sec miners to get out to the belts. Given that just regular Gneiss reduces to 2000 units of pyerite, if Gneiss spawn rates were higher, there would be more to effectively reduce down into pyerite, to help the market recover. But there would also be a need to help manage belt security, which CCP will largely leave the miners to the mercy of gankers.

    While there is some safety in numbers, mining vessels aren’t all that speedy to warp out and so that could cause more problems. There goes your 1B ISK ship along with all that ore. Mining fleets could ultimately do easy freelance security jobs, getting newbros into low sec and into pvp, but that also could present a mismatch of skill between the gankers outfitted in strong fits and pvp skills and newbros with fits that are going to ultimately be underpowered by lack of pvp skill and experience.

    Again, I think at some level that since High Sec mining is the second highest, I do think the high sec buffs are more about helping newbros get into the game and build some ISK wealth so they can ultimately go long term with the game. However, newbros can only do so much mining, especially when the high sec asteroids don’t bring in a lot of pyerite and minerals anyway. Clearly, that is not enough to meet the demand of pyerite and lower the price and sending them out to low sec without proper protection only to get ganked is only dissuading them from continuing.

    The sudden influx of pyerite would have the market go haywire, which is probably the reason why CCP is ultimately being highly, and perhaps, overly cautious about pushing moon goo and gneiss too far, but the problem is they still think the price is too high.

    The likely story is that most of the pyerite being mined is now being sent through the private contract markets, which is causing the inability to move the price in Jita. At some point, that pyerite does need to come back to the Jita market to affect the price.

    Ultimately, the larger problem is CCP looking at the wrong signals on pyerite and ore demand and in order for them to fix the market in the way they see fit they need to be making investments in low sec as a starting point.

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    Sources

    Adam4Eve API – Market Price History

    EVE Online July MER

    The Oz

    Discord

    Reddit

  • Commentary: July 2025 MER

    Welcome back to Auric Quanta Strategies’ Market Analysis blog. I have been away in real life enjoying my summer and ready to head into the fall strong. I am going to ease back into posting and only post on Thursday for the next few weeks and we will see how the rest of my schedule in real life, corp and business life, and FFXIV all mingle, because somehow I have to keep moving mountains while getting enough sleep.

    The July Monthly Economic Report came out this Monday, the 18th of August, which is very late. Supposedly, CCP had issues with their data processing, which seems odd to me that they have such issues given the vast amounts of data they produce with ESI.

    The hot topic on everyone’s mind is the status of Pyerite. CCP buffed the output of Pyerite by 10% from Scordites and Morduniums on the 31st, after buffing it in late June.

    Pyerite is a foundational mineral in T1 hulls and modules, though T2 hulls and modules are not as constrained by the lack of pyerite on the public markets. So without pyerite, industry begins to halt and there in lies the problem. No ships and modules to build, it becomes more expensive to fly.

    Other minerals continue to push the Mineral Price Index down, but the price of Pyerite remains fixed at around 30 ISK, which CCP has deemed too high of cost.

    This calculus is informed by the fact that production, both primary (reactions, ore reprocessing, PI, the like) and secondary (modules and hulls), is down in terms of their price indexes and very dramatic fall in terms of production value. However this indicates that the markets have not lost a lot of value, and thus production remains to be viable in the market.

    But what does this mean for pyerite and CCP’s push to drive down prices?

    Effectively, CCP is trying to push commodities and finished products’ prices lower to effectively make it cheaper and easier to fly, which means more ISK flow and, potentially, more PLEX purchases and redemption.

    However, given the multiple buffs of pyerite, supply and demand have not fully reconciled. Looking at the graphs below, there is an uptick in mining value and there is an upswing in asteroid mining volume in null sec after a significant decrease in June suggesting that the alliance shuffle and moves have completed and mining resumes at rates more in-line with numbers from March.

    However, key in this is that null sec mining is up, not high sec, and given that asteroid ore that melts into pyerite is not very common in null, means CCP’s attempts to get miners out on the belts will have limited success, at least outside of high sec.

    That may be strategic on CCP’s part to get new players a piece of the action they need to get going into solidifying their engagement. The moneyed oldbies and industrial titans need to realize they cannot sustain EVE’s business model indefinitely and that investors in Pearl Abyss cannot wait much longer for EVE to remain a niche of a niche world. That’s the unfortunate reality of late stage capitalism.

    Additionally, the MER does not take into account private contracts and corp/alliance buybacks, so it might be making pyerite from CCP’s point of view scarcer than it really is on the ground. This then would explain why the Mineral Price Index and production price indexes are not falling at an even pace. This again suggests that CCP wants newbros actively producing and often times don’t have a strong corp presence.

    Takeaways

    Miners – Get out on the belts and pop those R4 moons. This is prime opportunity time to get lots of ore in high sec. Low sec also needs mining activity but considering low sec is as, if not more, dangerous than null and sov null these days, do take a few big guns out with you. Low sec has more Mordunium, which reduces into purely pyerite, so if you don’t have access to R4 moons, this is a prime reason to be out in low sec.

    Industrialists – No big takeaways other than continuing to produce at the rates you are at right now. If you are short on pyerite and don’t have access to cheap pyerite and/or don’t feel like dealing with the public markets, shift your lines to less intensive pyerite blueprints and focus on salvage now that has effectively lost value on the market given the recent changes in exploration.

    Newbros – It’s your time to shine. Get those Ventures mining Scordite, but also fire up the manufacturing modules and get producing. To be super successful takes time, but give it a go and see how it feels!

    In short, we will have to sit tight and see how the recent buff on pyerite is ultimately consumed in production in August but we won’t know until the August MER report is released next month.

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    Sources

    EVE Online July MER

    EVE Tycoon

    The Oz

    Discord

  • Commentary: June’s MER & Minerals

    Commentary: June’s MER & Minerals

    CCP dropped the Monthly Economic Report (MER) for June in the morning (USTZ ET) of July 10th.

    There are some nice market nuggets inside the report and at least two I’ll highlight here.

    The Data

    • Mineral Price Index rose 9.5% suggesting that 1) the pyerite buffs had limited effect on the monthly index since they were late in the month, 2) according to analysis by Oz, pyerite bounced and went back up to pre-patch levels, 3) if pyerite is not the influencing mineral, there’s another shortage somewhere in the markets that’s causing a small rebound.
    • Primary production (so reactions, mining reprocessing, and assorted production) is up 9.5% while secondary production (modules, hulls, components, etc) were down 3.3% suggesting somewhere there’s a production blockage.
    • Mining value is also down significantly, correcting from the big boom in May.

    Analysis

    Overall, the markets are starting to correct from the highs of May. This suggests that war preparations were well under underway in May, and if people were watching the markets close enough, industrialists might have been able to keep themselves from losing money on the markets as demand would eventually end, and production lagging behind demand. This puts my post on the Ferox Navy Issue hull within a broader context, because the producers that were early on the markets were the most successful at getting the best ask price.

    While the battles between the PandemicHorde and Imperium were large, the sheer lack of battles turned them ultimately into skirmishes, thus reducing destruction and reducing demand.

    In addition, the lack of pyerite in the market has also hamstrung production efforts with industrialists, probably lightening their load of production to strictly items without large quantities of pyerite needed or only producing only needed items that need pyerite. This is also emblematic of a situation where the fleet stock was already high and that those that saw the pyrite crunch coming, were likely over producing in advance.

    The lack of minerals is also likely due to lower mining values because of lack of full scale mining ventures out in the belts. This likely due to the most recent null sec reorganization and movement, which suggests other minerals are going to get squeezed similar to pyerite.

    I’m already seeing some evidence in the mexallon markets of an inflation of demand so until null sec movement settles down, I suspect the mineral market and the EVE Mineral Price Index will continue to rise.

    Takeaways

    • Miners: If you aren’t already mining for pyerite, and to a lesser extent mexallon, get out to the fields. Feel free sell directly to bids because this point that is where the biggest demand is. If you aren’t part of the sov null and generally stay in high or low sec, you should be able to capitalize.
    • Industrialists/Producers: Formalize contracts with miners (or freelance jobs) to get minerals to you. The market is still trying to find where it will land, especially after the patch, and the market doesn’t seem to be willing to let pyerite to relax. Since that is the case, I would recommend staying off the markets and continue to work through contract.
    • Traders: If y’all are reason that pyerite is not settling, let it go before you crash the entire economy (at least on the market boards). Pyerite is crucial to the game and why CCP is willing to inflate the availability. The minute it gets expensive to fly ships, the minute everything around the game stalls content-wise. Not everyone has billions and trillions of ISK in reserve and the real world economy is starting to slow, that creates a very risky situation for CCP and EVE, who rely on PLEX purchases and subs, and the minute it becomes more expensive to play, more players will drop out of the game.

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    Sources

    EVE Online June MER

    EVE Markets – Mexallon

    The Oz

    Discord

  • War Commentary: a bite-sized blog on the progression of Horde vs Goons

    War Commentary: a bite-sized blog on the progression of Horde vs Goons

    While the war started off with a bang, it is clearly going to end on a whimper (at least not on r/eve).

    While most EVE players live for blowing up ships and Keepstars, at this point, it’s actually looking like Goonswarm is mostly fighting a one-sided war and, honestly, now that I think about it makes the Horde look, well dignified and perhaps justified.

    It’s one thing to glass patrolled and heavily fortified sov null, quite another to let your rental sov null change hands. After all, the Horde, probably makes good money already, that losing Insmother isn’t going to bankrupt them. While losses are always to be expected, especially in war, I would argue at some point someone did the math that losing more ships in terms of production, fitting, and skill points is going to be more expensive then losing several Keepstars and a handful of renters that probably are going to rent from the Goons or whoever ultimately ends up controlling the system.

    I also think that watching the Goons glassing a clearly abandoned system with reckless disregard for self-awareness is kind of cringe at this point.

    Is the war over? Honestly? It feels like Goons made their point, Horde said “No, thanks” and everyone will autopilot home tomorrow satisfied and dream up the next thing to be salty about.

    At least the ISK is flowing. See you Thursday night with my Market Report.