Auric Quanta Strategies

Category: Wartime Econonies

  • What the Hek?

    What the Hek?

    I was discussing the latest meta with a contact on Discord and quickly made some demand curve discoveries that might be signaling things to come in the future of Null Sec politics and territory expansion.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Carrier-Class Hull in Metropolis from 25/02/25 to 25/02/26
    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Tech II Light Fighter in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    Looking into a carrier-class ship, we are seeing greater bid/buy demand outstripping sell/ask volumes in Hek. Additionally, as we look into the current meta for carrier-based fighters, a similar pattern, lined up to the time around the dissolution of PanFam, but also the Carrier buff around the same time, there seems to be evidence of someone in Hek potentially trying to support internal manufacturing with external buys to be on the ready.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of All Carrier Hulls (except Vanguard) in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    However, broadening the scope to all carriers, this inversion goes away and doesn’t manifest until the end of January of this year. In addition, the big spike in both curves around the end of 2025 suggests that someone was both buying and selling in great quantity. However, given that the spike is on one date and then returns to normal suggests a few things, 1) mistaken orders that were subsequently taken off the market the next day, 2) a data processing issue (the rest of the data looks good and within normal parameters), or 3) vaild short order with the intention to manipulate the market, that was was ultimately resolved the next day. 

    For null-bloc politics, bringing carrier hulls into hi sec trading hubs is not profitable nor possible (carriers can’t fly in hi sec) given the high-risk nature of bringing high-value cargo into low and high sec space.

    If this in fact, a market driven by null sec politics, then null sec is going to start speeding up carrier construction in null sec, considering that there seems to be interest in what is fast becoming the dominant meta. There is potential that this is low sec alliances related, and that given null is quiet at the moment.

    The question, of course, on my mind is why Hek? Wouldn’t it be easier to base everything from Jita? It might lie with the fact that Jita and the surrounding area are ripe for ganking squads. Hek is more out of the way in Metropolis and not as directed to as the central location for trade by CCP. Hek is also relatively close to both the Imperium and Winter Coalition null-sec territories. Which side or sides are using Hek as the base of carrier logistic prepping and without any character information attached to order books, we cannot really know. It is clear that someone with a vested interest in the dissolution of PamFam is either rebuilding through hi sec, or prepping for a future escalation. 

    Hek does have the new advantage of having EVEGuru’s, led by Fern Kitsuen, new industrial park in Anher. There is a good chance that Hek will further develop into the second-largest trade hub. However, given that there are rumors that CCP has plans for developing a more robust trading market, instead of having Jita be the central market, EVEGuru seems to have lucked out.

    In other ways, Minmatar space is popular for Faction Warfare content, so it comes with the need for more ships. Carriers can’t roam high sec, Hek would be the primary place to at least stock up on items for FW, so they could be transported. An additional caveat is that my data is looking at region and not system, so while Hek is in Metropolis, and that is useful as a signal, we also run into that limitation, and the carriers being purchased are being traded in low sec. 

    The main takeaway of this brief basically comes down to if push came to shove and war breaks out, there is likely someone already prepping. If you are a null sec bloc or have vested interests out that way, it is time to start thinking about starting your preparations sooner rather than later. If you are an industrialist, it’s time to start thinking about spreading out and considering other markets that are growing. 

    I might be back writing (doing a bit of real-life literary writing too), so if you want to catch my market briefs, be sure to subscribe to the blog, when a post goes live. Don’t plan on having a regular day to post, so subscribing is the only way you will see everything

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    Sources

    Python

    Jypter Notebooks

    Adam4Eve.eu API

    EVERef

    Personal anonymous sources

  • Heat Index of 37°C: O-Isotopes Heating Up

    Heat Index of 37°C: O-Isotopes Heating Up

    It is hot, humid, and sunny today where I live, but also things in Jita are also hot on the Ice Product market with O-Isotopes correcting course as Null Sec alliances play musical regions. Let’s get right into the graphs for today’s short update post.

    Market Scope

    Commodity: O-Isotopes

    Time Frame: June 11-22

    Market: The Forge

    Observations

    First a clarification, I have been using the ask/bid/volume high values, however it was not the best measure I could be using to understand the markets long term or shifting through the noise of prices or volumes that were outliers. Going forward, I’ll be using ask/bid/volume average values to better track long term trends, and find the signals with greater clarity. Better Analysis = Better Outcomes

    As you can see in the graph below the Ask Price has plateaued twice, but on the 20th the price started rising. From 17-22 of June, the price has risen 13.08%.

    The bid price has also been rising, however, that has only risen 3.72% since the 17th, which was the end date to my Thursday market post, which has only plateaued on the 21st.

    The compression from the flat ask, rising bid price from last post has rebounded and while the number is less than the initial rebound the spread % difference is still very high, with a rise of 1626%.

    If we look at the Volume Dynamics of O-Isotopes, we are seeing a closing in on inversion again. Clearly, miners feel comfortable with now selling their refined ice products on the Ask market rather than going directly to the buyers that need the ice.

    Analysis

    Clearly with multiple moves happening in Null Sec, the price is increasing, but we are seeing the rise in ask volume. The abundance of buy orders is now for the most part over given moves are finishing their final stages and thus O-Isotopes are no longer needed.

    Miners will have to be careful not to over sell the market because that could create a problem for traders, so given the trends in the market, I am forecasting that the market will invert, driving prices and spread down once again.

    Recommendations

    • Miners can still sell directly to buyers, but be careful in adding to the Ask Volume.
    • Traders, this is not an investment, unless you are going to buy into the dip, but honestly, I would hold off.

    Until the market can stabilize, I suggest waiting for any real investment either in product or trading. Additionally, I expect a dip in spread, however, I don’t expect a deep negative spread coming like on the 17th, but given the fact the Null Blocs are solidifying their new territories, demand and price pressures should be easing on both sides and there should be a stabilization of the ask/bid prices.

    Part of a Null bloc, what is your take on this? Is the price growth hampering your wallet? Miners, what is your preference, either sell directly to buyers, or are you going more towards the ask market? Comment below.

  • Wartime Economies: Swimming with the Ferox Navy Fishes

    Wartime Economies: Swimming with the Ferox Navy Fishes

    So as we have had a day without a scrimish between the expansionist Goonswarm/Imperium (Goons)and the PandemicHorde (Horde) after the Goons erected a Foritzer on the Horde’s Keepstar Grid in The Great Wildlands last month. Tonight, the Foritzer completes its achoring, basically meaning it is either fight or flight for the Horde (my intel has the Horde running, but who knows…).

    If successful, what will that mean for null sec, the Goons’ plans, and if PandemicHorde can keep going after all the dust settles remains to be seen, I, however, am interested in the ISK numbers of the Ferox Navy Issue, which was the hull that had the greatest destruction across both sides in the 04 June battle.

    I pulled the updated market data today and saw the final total volumes of the Ask/Sell and Bid/Buy markets of the Ferox Navy from yesterday, the 05th, and thought I would show my findings before the big party tonight, some time around 11pm EST USTZ.

    Observations

    Here we see that the inversion of the market, that I warned against, happens with a supply that begins to outstrip the demand for buyers. Sellers (the ask line) now can’t find a market in which support top dollar ask prices and either fill a much cheaper buy order or put up the hull on for a lower profit they could have gotten, but one that has diminishing returns.

    We see that in the next graphs:

    In the Ask Graph we see the big spikes, but then we see a drop after 2 June. When the Ask/Buy volumes switch with more Ask on the market, we see that price start to drop.

    The buy/bid price is also because now there are more buyers that can wait for the bids to be filled and they can command a better price because the going ask is now effectively now too high.

    As you can see, as the bid orders raise in price and when the ask orders shrink in price the spread changes are dramatic.

    As you can see here on the 27th of May, circled in fuchsia on both charts, the lowest ask volume is also when the change in the spread is largest, suggesting a rise in the ask price. The same thing happens on 2 June, with the points circled in purple.

    Analysis

    If you were an industrialist that got going with Ferox Navies after the Goons dropped the Fortizer, you probably caught the first wave if you were early enough. If you started producing after the Goons declared war, you probably caught the second wave after a couple of days of waiting. But if you were not in the market by 02 June, your luck ran out and the volume rises to the inversion of the market.

    From June 02nd and June 05th, the sell price dropped 15.42% as the volume went up 54.62%, showing just how fickle the market can be when there is a big war and a large destruction of hulls.

    Overall, it seems that the Ferox Navies were purchased by an alliance early on as there is that large glut of immediate sells and that crashed dramatically once the Goons dropped the Fortizer.

    It does look like the Goons were preparing for war before the Fortizer event, putting in bid orders for the hull well before war was ever declared and the Ferox Navies needed. The Horde went after the Rokh initially and that fleet was decimated, forcing them into the Ferox Navies in the 04 June battle, which was still resoundly destroyed by the Goons.

    Recommendations

    • Start your production of Ferox Navies (unless the doctrines change) at the first sign of trouble between null sec alliances. The producers that started production after June 02, trying to capitalize on the day’s jump, a couple of days after the war declaration, were way too late and effectively lost money in The Forge markets.
    • If you are central intel for your null sec alliance, keep your eyes on the market orders, there was movement way before anything was happening with the Goons, and while there is no guarantee those markets are moving because of another alliance, keeping tabs on doctrine hulls in the market can be a sly way of predicting movement of, well, at least someone.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this war and potential battle for the ages? Did you get caught in that market volume inversion and now operating at a loss?

    If you need more in-depth information on the hull or others (Hearing there’s a need for the Vulture among both or just one) then feel free to contact me either in game at ‘Matt Shigella’, or online @godislobster on Discord or email me at mattshigella@gmail.com and we can talk about how I can get you the info you need.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    EveTools – 04 June 2025, 03 June 2025

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution