Auric Quanta Strategies

Tag: eve economy

  • What the Hek?

    What the Hek?

    I was discussing the latest meta with a contact on Discord and quickly made some demand curve discoveries that might be signaling things to come in the future of Null Sec politics and territory expansion.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Carrier-Class Hull in Metropolis from 25/02/25 to 25/02/26
    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Tech II Light Fighter in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    Looking into a carrier-class ship, we are seeing greater bid/buy demand outstripping sell/ask volumes in Hek. Additionally, as we look into the current meta for carrier-based fighters, a similar pattern, lined up to the time around the dissolution of PanFam, but also the Carrier buff around the same time, there seems to be evidence of someone in Hek potentially trying to support internal manufacturing with external buys to be on the ready.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of All Carrier Hulls (except Vanguard) in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    However, broadening the scope to all carriers, this inversion goes away and doesn’t manifest until the end of January of this year. In addition, the big spike in both curves around the end of 2025 suggests that someone was both buying and selling in great quantity. However, given that the spike is on one date and then returns to normal suggests a few things, 1) mistaken orders that were subsequently taken off the market the next day, 2) a data processing issue (the rest of the data looks good and within normal parameters), or 3) vaild short order with the intention to manipulate the market, that was was ultimately resolved the next day. 

    For null-bloc politics, bringing carrier hulls into hi sec trading hubs is not profitable nor possible (carriers can’t fly in hi sec) given the high-risk nature of bringing high-value cargo into low and high sec space.

    If this in fact, a market driven by null sec politics, then null sec is going to start speeding up carrier construction in null sec, considering that there seems to be interest in what is fast becoming the dominant meta. There is potential that this is low sec alliances related, and that given null is quiet at the moment.

    The question, of course, on my mind is why Hek? Wouldn’t it be easier to base everything from Jita? It might lie with the fact that Jita and the surrounding area are ripe for ganking squads. Hek is more out of the way in Metropolis and not as directed to as the central location for trade by CCP. Hek is also relatively close to both the Imperium and Winter Coalition null-sec territories. Which side or sides are using Hek as the base of carrier logistic prepping and without any character information attached to order books, we cannot really know. It is clear that someone with a vested interest in the dissolution of PamFam is either rebuilding through hi sec, or prepping for a future escalation. 

    Hek does have the new advantage of having EVEGuru’s, led by Fern Kitsuen, new industrial park in Anher. There is a good chance that Hek will further develop into the second-largest trade hub. However, given that there are rumors that CCP has plans for developing a more robust trading market, instead of having Jita be the central market, EVEGuru seems to have lucked out.

    In other ways, Minmatar space is popular for Faction Warfare content, so it comes with the need for more ships. Carriers can’t roam high sec, Hek would be the primary place to at least stock up on items for FW, so they could be transported. An additional caveat is that my data is looking at region and not system, so while Hek is in Metropolis, and that is useful as a signal, we also run into that limitation, and the carriers being purchased are being traded in low sec. 

    The main takeaway of this brief basically comes down to if push came to shove and war breaks out, there is likely someone already prepping. If you are a null sec bloc or have vested interests out that way, it is time to start thinking about starting your preparations sooner rather than later. If you are an industrialist, it’s time to start thinking about spreading out and considering other markets that are growing. 

    I might be back writing (doing a bit of real-life literary writing too), so if you want to catch my market briefs, be sure to subscribe to the blog, when a post goes live. Don’t plan on having a regular day to post, so subscribing is the only way you will see everything

    No ads, no AI (anymore), no BS.

    Sources

    Python

    Jypter Notebooks

    Adam4Eve.eu API

    EVERef

    Personal anonymous sources

  • Commentary: June’s MER & Minerals

    Commentary: June’s MER & Minerals

    CCP dropped the Monthly Economic Report (MER) for June in the morning (USTZ ET) of July 10th.

    There are some nice market nuggets inside the report and at least two I’ll highlight here.

    The Data

    • Mineral Price Index rose 9.5% suggesting that 1) the pyerite buffs had limited effect on the monthly index since they were late in the month, 2) according to analysis by Oz, pyerite bounced and went back up to pre-patch levels, 3) if pyerite is not the influencing mineral, there’s another shortage somewhere in the markets that’s causing a small rebound.
    • Primary production (so reactions, mining reprocessing, and assorted production) is up 9.5% while secondary production (modules, hulls, components, etc) were down 3.3% suggesting somewhere there’s a production blockage.
    • Mining value is also down significantly, correcting from the big boom in May.

    Analysis

    Overall, the markets are starting to correct from the highs of May. This suggests that war preparations were well under underway in May, and if people were watching the markets close enough, industrialists might have been able to keep themselves from losing money on the markets as demand would eventually end, and production lagging behind demand. This puts my post on the Ferox Navy Issue hull within a broader context, because the producers that were early on the markets were the most successful at getting the best ask price.

    While the battles between the PandemicHorde and Imperium were large, the sheer lack of battles turned them ultimately into skirmishes, thus reducing destruction and reducing demand.

    In addition, the lack of pyerite in the market has also hamstrung production efforts with industrialists, probably lightening their load of production to strictly items without large quantities of pyerite needed or only producing only needed items that need pyerite. This is also emblematic of a situation where the fleet stock was already high and that those that saw the pyrite crunch coming, were likely over producing in advance.

    The lack of minerals is also likely due to lower mining values because of lack of full scale mining ventures out in the belts. This likely due to the most recent null sec reorganization and movement, which suggests other minerals are going to get squeezed similar to pyerite.

    I’m already seeing some evidence in the mexallon markets of an inflation of demand so until null sec movement settles down, I suspect the mineral market and the EVE Mineral Price Index will continue to rise.

    Takeaways

    • Miners: If you aren’t already mining for pyerite, and to a lesser extent mexallon, get out to the fields. Feel free sell directly to bids because this point that is where the biggest demand is. If you aren’t part of the sov null and generally stay in high or low sec, you should be able to capitalize.
    • Industrialists/Producers: Formalize contracts with miners (or freelance jobs) to get minerals to you. The market is still trying to find where it will land, especially after the patch, and the market doesn’t seem to be willing to let pyerite to relax. Since that is the case, I would recommend staying off the markets and continue to work through contract.
    • Traders: If y’all are reason that pyerite is not settling, let it go before you crash the entire economy (at least on the market boards). Pyerite is crucial to the game and why CCP is willing to inflate the availability. The minute it gets expensive to fly ships, the minute everything around the game stalls content-wise. Not everyone has billions and trillions of ISK in reserve and the real world economy is starting to slow, that creates a very risky situation for CCP and EVE, who rely on PLEX purchases and subs, and the minute it becomes more expensive to play, more players will drop out of the game.

    Like my analyses and want to keep up with my posts? Consider subscribing and get the post sent directly to your inbox!

    Sources

    EVE Online June MER

    EVE Markets – Mexallon

    The Oz

    Discord

  • Market Report Glance:First Look into Auric Intel Reports: Warfare Vulture Doctrine Fit – High Slots

    Market Report Glance:First Look into Auric Intel Reports: Warfare Vulture Doctrine Fit – High Slots

    So I will releasing a report on the (Horde) Vulture Doctrine Fit for ISK on Friday June 20th. The report will cover all the modules in the doctrine based on kill reports during the June 04 Battle for the Vulture, the preferred Command Fleet Ship.

    The ship has bonuses for railguns which I will be highlighting the 250mm Railgun II in this post today, along with the Skirmish Command Burst II module.

    Market Scope

    Commodity – 250mm Railgun II and Skirmish Command Burst II

    Sample Regional Market – The Forge

    Time frame – 15 May 2025 to 11 June 2025 (12:30 USTZ EST)

    Observations/Analysis

    The 250mm Railgun II has seen some things during this war and the trends in The Forge is an interesting case of oversupply (ask volume Increased 466.24% from 04 June to 11 June) while not experiencing strong price spread disruption.

    Overall the price is above historical levels but both the ask/sell and bid/buy prices have fallen dramatically (Railgun is in Blue):

    From the 04 June battle to 11 June, the ask price fell 29.71%.

    From the battle on the 04th to the 11th, the buy price fell 18.74%

    That said the price of both ask/sell and bid/buy has not seen dramatic spikes either, remaining fairly flat, suggesting that prices are stable and that right now the oversupply isn’t causing deflation, but the market (the price drop) is signalling that should the oversupply continue and the spread starts to compress, deflation will occur.

    As in the above Spread % chart, the Skirmish Command Burst II’s price is showing more normal behavior for a commodity during wartime. That said the spike of SCBII after the 04 June battle is clearly showing that there was an interest in the module. The spike was an increase of 339.81% between 04 June and 06 June suggesting people were expecting to use them when they bought them. When there was no battle the price fell below where it was on the 15th of May.

    As we can see here around the same date, the Ask/Bid lines start closing the difference, suggesting that there was a noticeable demand for the module. However, unlike last week’s inversion with the Ferox Navy Issue and the market becoming oversaturated as in the 250mm Railgun II’s case, this jump in market orders looks more like arbitrage flipping starting near 08 June. Notice how the as the average ask volume goes up the average bid volume decreases. With the 250MMRII, the spread is much wider than the spread in the SCBII volume chart for the same dates, suggesting that there are more outstanding production issues with the railgun.

    Recommendations

    • Stop production of 250mm Railguns II, otherwise you will have to liquidate and the price will sink further and it risks becoming a quagmire with with plenty of finished product on the market that isn’t moving because it looks like this war is petering out, at least between the Horde and Goons.
    • Hold off on any plans to produce Skirmish Command Burst II. It is looking like it could also cause problems once there is too much on the market. Given that I do think the current volume pattern suggests arbitrage trading, thus production should done with the mind that the more you put on the market the price is going to sink and drop out the arbitrage traders out, but along with your profits.
    • Pay attention to current events and changes in wars. I am seeing that industrialists are getting into the market too late and it is costing you money on profits. Reddit and Twitter are two good war front news sources because without planning correctly, you won’t reap the benefits. Yes, this war has been different and weird, but ultimately the world cannot be fully predictable and you have to be on top of it to take advantage of.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this “war”? Do the Goons go after another alliance to make up for the lack of an opponient in the Pandemic Horde?

    Please remember that I will be releasing the (paid (in ISK)) report on June 20th on the entire Vulture doctrine fit. Be sure to subscribe to the blog to be one of the first to read it and my posts during the week.

    Remember to check out my Services page if you are interested in getting a trend report, production analysis, or a custom data report and contact me on my Contact Page.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution