Auric Quanta Strategies

Tag: EVE Manufacturing

  • What the Hek?

    What the Hek?

    I was discussing the latest meta with a contact on Discord and quickly made some demand curve discoveries that might be signaling things to come in the future of Null Sec politics and territory expansion.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Carrier-Class Hull in Metropolis from 25/02/25 to 25/02/26
    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Tech II Light Fighter in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    Looking into a carrier-class ship, we are seeing greater bid/buy demand outstripping sell/ask volumes in Hek. Additionally, as we look into the current meta for carrier-based fighters, a similar pattern, lined up to the time around the dissolution of PanFam, but also the Carrier buff around the same time, there seems to be evidence of someone in Hek potentially trying to support internal manufacturing with external buys to be on the ready.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of All Carrier Hulls (except Vanguard) in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    However, broadening the scope to all carriers, this inversion goes away and doesn’t manifest until the end of January of this year. In addition, the big spike in both curves around the end of 2025 suggests that someone was both buying and selling in great quantity. However, given that the spike is on one date and then returns to normal suggests a few things, 1) mistaken orders that were subsequently taken off the market the next day, 2) a data processing issue (the rest of the data looks good and within normal parameters), or 3) vaild short order with the intention to manipulate the market, that was was ultimately resolved the next day. 

    For null-bloc politics, bringing carrier hulls into hi sec trading hubs is not profitable nor possible (carriers can’t fly in hi sec) given the high-risk nature of bringing high-value cargo into low and high sec space.

    If this in fact, a market driven by null sec politics, then null sec is going to start speeding up carrier construction in null sec, considering that there seems to be interest in what is fast becoming the dominant meta. There is potential that this is low sec alliances related, and that given null is quiet at the moment.

    The question, of course, on my mind is why Hek? Wouldn’t it be easier to base everything from Jita? It might lie with the fact that Jita and the surrounding area are ripe for ganking squads. Hek is more out of the way in Metropolis and not as directed to as the central location for trade by CCP. Hek is also relatively close to both the Imperium and Winter Coalition null-sec territories. Which side or sides are using Hek as the base of carrier logistic prepping and without any character information attached to order books, we cannot really know. It is clear that someone with a vested interest in the dissolution of PamFam is either rebuilding through hi sec, or prepping for a future escalation. 

    Hek does have the new advantage of having EVEGuru’s, led by Fern Kitsuen, new industrial park in Anher. There is a good chance that Hek will further develop into the second-largest trade hub. However, given that there are rumors that CCP has plans for developing a more robust trading market, instead of having Jita be the central market, EVEGuru seems to have lucked out.

    In other ways, Minmatar space is popular for Faction Warfare content, so it comes with the need for more ships. Carriers can’t roam high sec, Hek would be the primary place to at least stock up on items for FW, so they could be transported. An additional caveat is that my data is looking at region and not system, so while Hek is in Metropolis, and that is useful as a signal, we also run into that limitation, and the carriers being purchased are being traded in low sec. 

    The main takeaway of this brief basically comes down to if push came to shove and war breaks out, there is likely someone already prepping. If you are a null sec bloc or have vested interests out that way, it is time to start thinking about starting your preparations sooner rather than later. If you are an industrialist, it’s time to start thinking about spreading out and considering other markets that are growing. 

    I might be back writing (doing a bit of real-life literary writing too), so if you want to catch my market briefs, be sure to subscribe to the blog, when a post goes live. Don’t plan on having a regular day to post, so subscribing is the only way you will see everything

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    Sources

    Python

    Jypter Notebooks

    Adam4Eve.eu API

    EVERef

    Personal anonymous sources

  • Commentary: July 2025 MER

    Welcome back to Auric Quanta Strategies’ Market Analysis blog. I have been away in real life enjoying my summer and ready to head into the fall strong. I am going to ease back into posting and only post on Thursday for the next few weeks and we will see how the rest of my schedule in real life, corp and business life, and FFXIV all mingle, because somehow I have to keep moving mountains while getting enough sleep.

    The July Monthly Economic Report came out this Monday, the 18th of August, which is very late. Supposedly, CCP had issues with their data processing, which seems odd to me that they have such issues given the vast amounts of data they produce with ESI.

    The hot topic on everyone’s mind is the status of Pyerite. CCP buffed the output of Pyerite by 10% from Scordites and Morduniums on the 31st, after buffing it in late June.

    Pyerite is a foundational mineral in T1 hulls and modules, though T2 hulls and modules are not as constrained by the lack of pyerite on the public markets. So without pyerite, industry begins to halt and there in lies the problem. No ships and modules to build, it becomes more expensive to fly.

    Other minerals continue to push the Mineral Price Index down, but the price of Pyerite remains fixed at around 30 ISK, which CCP has deemed too high of cost.

    This calculus is informed by the fact that production, both primary (reactions, ore reprocessing, PI, the like) and secondary (modules and hulls), is down in terms of their price indexes and very dramatic fall in terms of production value. However this indicates that the markets have not lost a lot of value, and thus production remains to be viable in the market.

    But what does this mean for pyerite and CCP’s push to drive down prices?

    Effectively, CCP is trying to push commodities and finished products’ prices lower to effectively make it cheaper and easier to fly, which means more ISK flow and, potentially, more PLEX purchases and redemption.

    However, given the multiple buffs of pyerite, supply and demand have not fully reconciled. Looking at the graphs below, there is an uptick in mining value and there is an upswing in asteroid mining volume in null sec after a significant decrease in June suggesting that the alliance shuffle and moves have completed and mining resumes at rates more in-line with numbers from March.

    However, key in this is that null sec mining is up, not high sec, and given that asteroid ore that melts into pyerite is not very common in null, means CCP’s attempts to get miners out on the belts will have limited success, at least outside of high sec.

    That may be strategic on CCP’s part to get new players a piece of the action they need to get going into solidifying their engagement. The moneyed oldbies and industrial titans need to realize they cannot sustain EVE’s business model indefinitely and that investors in Pearl Abyss cannot wait much longer for EVE to remain a niche of a niche world. That’s the unfortunate reality of late stage capitalism.

    Additionally, the MER does not take into account private contracts and corp/alliance buybacks, so it might be making pyerite from CCP’s point of view scarcer than it really is on the ground. This then would explain why the Mineral Price Index and production price indexes are not falling at an even pace. This again suggests that CCP wants newbros actively producing and often times don’t have a strong corp presence.

    Takeaways

    Miners – Get out on the belts and pop those R4 moons. This is prime opportunity time to get lots of ore in high sec. Low sec also needs mining activity but considering low sec is as, if not more, dangerous than null and sov null these days, do take a few big guns out with you. Low sec has more Mordunium, which reduces into purely pyerite, so if you don’t have access to R4 moons, this is a prime reason to be out in low sec.

    Industrialists – No big takeaways other than continuing to produce at the rates you are at right now. If you are short on pyerite and don’t have access to cheap pyerite and/or don’t feel like dealing with the public markets, shift your lines to less intensive pyerite blueprints and focus on salvage now that has effectively lost value on the market given the recent changes in exploration.

    Newbros – It’s your time to shine. Get those Ventures mining Scordite, but also fire up the manufacturing modules and get producing. To be super successful takes time, but give it a go and see how it feels!

    In short, we will have to sit tight and see how the recent buff on pyerite is ultimately consumed in production in August but we won’t know until the August MER report is released next month.

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    Sources

    EVE Online July MER

    EVE Tycoon

    The Oz

    Discord

  • Market Report Glance:First Look into Auric Intel Reports: Warfare Vulture Doctrine Fit – High Slots

    Market Report Glance:First Look into Auric Intel Reports: Warfare Vulture Doctrine Fit – High Slots

    So I will releasing a report on the (Horde) Vulture Doctrine Fit for ISK on Friday June 20th. The report will cover all the modules in the doctrine based on kill reports during the June 04 Battle for the Vulture, the preferred Command Fleet Ship.

    The ship has bonuses for railguns which I will be highlighting the 250mm Railgun II in this post today, along with the Skirmish Command Burst II module.

    Market Scope

    Commodity – 250mm Railgun II and Skirmish Command Burst II

    Sample Regional Market – The Forge

    Time frame – 15 May 2025 to 11 June 2025 (12:30 USTZ EST)

    Observations/Analysis

    The 250mm Railgun II has seen some things during this war and the trends in The Forge is an interesting case of oversupply (ask volume Increased 466.24% from 04 June to 11 June) while not experiencing strong price spread disruption.

    Overall the price is above historical levels but both the ask/sell and bid/buy prices have fallen dramatically (Railgun is in Blue):

    From the 04 June battle to 11 June, the ask price fell 29.71%.

    From the battle on the 04th to the 11th, the buy price fell 18.74%

    That said the price of both ask/sell and bid/buy has not seen dramatic spikes either, remaining fairly flat, suggesting that prices are stable and that right now the oversupply isn’t causing deflation, but the market (the price drop) is signalling that should the oversupply continue and the spread starts to compress, deflation will occur.

    As in the above Spread % chart, the Skirmish Command Burst II’s price is showing more normal behavior for a commodity during wartime. That said the spike of SCBII after the 04 June battle is clearly showing that there was an interest in the module. The spike was an increase of 339.81% between 04 June and 06 June suggesting people were expecting to use them when they bought them. When there was no battle the price fell below where it was on the 15th of May.

    As we can see here around the same date, the Ask/Bid lines start closing the difference, suggesting that there was a noticeable demand for the module. However, unlike last week’s inversion with the Ferox Navy Issue and the market becoming oversaturated as in the 250mm Railgun II’s case, this jump in market orders looks more like arbitrage flipping starting near 08 June. Notice how the as the average ask volume goes up the average bid volume decreases. With the 250MMRII, the spread is much wider than the spread in the SCBII volume chart for the same dates, suggesting that there are more outstanding production issues with the railgun.

    Recommendations

    • Stop production of 250mm Railguns II, otherwise you will have to liquidate and the price will sink further and it risks becoming a quagmire with with plenty of finished product on the market that isn’t moving because it looks like this war is petering out, at least between the Horde and Goons.
    • Hold off on any plans to produce Skirmish Command Burst II. It is looking like it could also cause problems once there is too much on the market. Given that I do think the current volume pattern suggests arbitrage trading, thus production should done with the mind that the more you put on the market the price is going to sink and drop out the arbitrage traders out, but along with your profits.
    • Pay attention to current events and changes in wars. I am seeing that industrialists are getting into the market too late and it is costing you money on profits. Reddit and Twitter are two good war front news sources because without planning correctly, you won’t reap the benefits. Yes, this war has been different and weird, but ultimately the world cannot be fully predictable and you have to be on top of it to take advantage of.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this “war”? Do the Goons go after another alliance to make up for the lack of an opponient in the Pandemic Horde?

    Please remember that I will be releasing the (paid (in ISK)) report on June 20th on the entire Vulture doctrine fit. Be sure to subscribe to the blog to be one of the first to read it and my posts during the week.

    Remember to check out my Services page if you are interested in getting a trend report, production analysis, or a custom data report and contact me on my Contact Page.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution

  • Wartime Economies: Swimming with the Ferox Navy Fishes

    Wartime Economies: Swimming with the Ferox Navy Fishes

    So as we have had a day without a scrimish between the expansionist Goonswarm/Imperium (Goons)and the PandemicHorde (Horde) after the Goons erected a Foritzer on the Horde’s Keepstar Grid in The Great Wildlands last month. Tonight, the Foritzer completes its achoring, basically meaning it is either fight or flight for the Horde (my intel has the Horde running, but who knows…).

    If successful, what will that mean for null sec, the Goons’ plans, and if PandemicHorde can keep going after all the dust settles remains to be seen, I, however, am interested in the ISK numbers of the Ferox Navy Issue, which was the hull that had the greatest destruction across both sides in the 04 June battle.

    I pulled the updated market data today and saw the final total volumes of the Ask/Sell and Bid/Buy markets of the Ferox Navy from yesterday, the 05th, and thought I would show my findings before the big party tonight, some time around 11pm EST USTZ.

    Observations

    Here we see that the inversion of the market, that I warned against, happens with a supply that begins to outstrip the demand for buyers. Sellers (the ask line) now can’t find a market in which support top dollar ask prices and either fill a much cheaper buy order or put up the hull on for a lower profit they could have gotten, but one that has diminishing returns.

    We see that in the next graphs:

    In the Ask Graph we see the big spikes, but then we see a drop after 2 June. When the Ask/Buy volumes switch with more Ask on the market, we see that price start to drop.

    The buy/bid price is also because now there are more buyers that can wait for the bids to be filled and they can command a better price because the going ask is now effectively now too high.

    As you can see, as the bid orders raise in price and when the ask orders shrink in price the spread changes are dramatic.

    As you can see here on the 27th of May, circled in fuchsia on both charts, the lowest ask volume is also when the change in the spread is largest, suggesting a rise in the ask price. The same thing happens on 2 June, with the points circled in purple.

    Analysis

    If you were an industrialist that got going with Ferox Navies after the Goons dropped the Fortizer, you probably caught the first wave if you were early enough. If you started producing after the Goons declared war, you probably caught the second wave after a couple of days of waiting. But if you were not in the market by 02 June, your luck ran out and the volume rises to the inversion of the market.

    From June 02nd and June 05th, the sell price dropped 15.42% as the volume went up 54.62%, showing just how fickle the market can be when there is a big war and a large destruction of hulls.

    Overall, it seems that the Ferox Navies were purchased by an alliance early on as there is that large glut of immediate sells and that crashed dramatically once the Goons dropped the Fortizer.

    It does look like the Goons were preparing for war before the Fortizer event, putting in bid orders for the hull well before war was ever declared and the Ferox Navies needed. The Horde went after the Rokh initially and that fleet was decimated, forcing them into the Ferox Navies in the 04 June battle, which was still resoundly destroyed by the Goons.

    Recommendations

    • Start your production of Ferox Navies (unless the doctrines change) at the first sign of trouble between null sec alliances. The producers that started production after June 02, trying to capitalize on the day’s jump, a couple of days after the war declaration, were way too late and effectively lost money in The Forge markets.
    • If you are central intel for your null sec alliance, keep your eyes on the market orders, there was movement way before anything was happening with the Goons, and while there is no guarantee those markets are moving because of another alliance, keeping tabs on doctrine hulls in the market can be a sly way of predicting movement of, well, at least someone.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this war and potential battle for the ages? Did you get caught in that market volume inversion and now operating at a loss?

    If you need more in-depth information on the hull or others (Hearing there’s a need for the Vulture among both or just one) then feel free to contact me either in game at ‘Matt Shigella’, or online @godislobster on Discord or email me at mattshigella@gmail.com and we can talk about how I can get you the info you need.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    EveTools – 04 June 2025, 03 June 2025

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution