Auric Quanta Strategies

Tag: EVE Market

  • FNI in Flux: The Market After the Meta Shift

    FNI in Flux: The Market After the Meta Shift

    I’m an idiot and said that Nighthawks are Ferox T2, but alas that isn’t true. Post updated.

    The big news last week was Legion’s first patch went live on Friday the 9th of this month. The patch devastated entire fleets in seconds without a single shot fired. If the destruction had occurred, the real world value destroyed would have reached the record books.

    In short, the rail gun meta was significantly nerfed by the patch, along with a host of many other buffs and nerfs across the empires’ fleet of ships. The patch did more damage than perhaps the Goon/Horde “war.”

    The rail gun meta has been popular from the introduction of the Ferox Navy Issue(FNI) in late 2022 until now. Three years of dominance of the hull that now has been undone, providing a more varied approach to fleet doctrines.

    Is CCP no fun? Depends on who you ask, but remember EVE pretty much has unlimited ways you can play spaceships, when a meta becomes too locked into fleet composition for too long, the game becomes stale.

    Stale gameplay leads to complaints and complaints result in lost subs, and you get the picture.

    For today’s post, I am going to look into the FNI after my initial post in June and how the market has changed throughout the months leading up to the patch, and the initial market reaction to the nerf.

    Target Scope

    Target Market: The Forge

    Date Range: 01-05-2025 to 15-09-2025

    Commodity: Ferox Navy Issue (FNI)

    Observations

    As the trend lines show, the hull was generally in decline. Without much destruction, the ask volume increased, depressing the ask price.

    Looking at the graph, the FNI’s decline started well before the patch, showing signs of weakness in late June when it was fast becoming obvious that the Goon/Horde war wasn’t going to continue in the same of the initial skirmishes.

    On the bid graph things look more volatile, with a one day trough spiking the profit margins (below). While spiky, the profit margin values have stayed relatively stable and flat, though a precipitous fall has happened in the days after the 09-September patch.

    In my earlier post in June (highlighted in sky blue), I spotted the inversion of the market, however, despite inverting again, the supply of FNIs outstrips demand.

    Going into the final weeks before the patch, supply spikes to the second highest point but as the patch announcement and notes trickle out, FNIs are removed from the market.

    Demand sees signs of strengthening, but the reasons why are unclear. I don’t predict for the market to fully recover given the changes in the meta.

    Analysis

    Is the FNI doomed for all eternity? Depends. Clearly, the current meta of railgun boats is going to change the doctrine make up going forward. Discussing this with corpmates and others online, the Vulture doctrine isn’t going anywhere. While the demand for FNIs will decrease, T1 Feroxes will continue to have use in terms of production of Vulture for fleet warfare.

    To be fair to the FNI, while it’s nerfed, I don’t foresee a major crash in usage but it will have less preferential usage and create other opportunities for new ships to enter into fleet doctrines.

    Given that FNIs are a separate production line and based on faction dog tags/currency and LP, I imagine demand for both the currency items and the Caldari LP, and therefore prices, will decrease, which will not be significant. The currency items and LP are often used for multiple LP store items.

    Industrialists: This is your time to scale back FNI production, and start working with fleet commanders on the next set of doctrine fittings. Continue producing standard T1 Feroxes for T2 production as Vultures, which are still in use in their related game content. The FNI isn’t disappearing, rather its ubiquity is going to decrease. If you are building a large number of these you best bet is to reduce the amount you’re producing and invest production in a more diversified manner.

    Station Traders: Hold any further investments into FNI until fleet doctrines start to solidify. I can’t say where to put your bets, as a dominant fleet doctrine has yet to shake out. FNIs are not going anywhere, but going forward fleets will be more varied, which for the long term health of your portfolio, start diversifying now will starve off any problems.

    Overall, the markets are shifting due to the recent nerf by the patch on 09-Sept 25 and its effects on fleet composition. The markets should be able absorb this shift and I don’t foresee a crash unless another hull becomes dominant in the fleet doctrine. While change can be difficult in ship doctrine, for both the long term health of the game and the economy it is necessary.

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    Sources

    Adam4Eve API – Market Price History

    The Oz

    Discord

    Reddit

  • Salvage Bittervets: Nothing too weird about crashing the market

    Salvage Bittervets: Nothing too weird about crashing the market

    This post is a week late because my boyfriend was in town last week and I chose to spend time with him. Real life always comes first.

    Eve is known for its high octane, hardcore PvP culture, though more in terms of blowing up ships and ganking. Given this is a market blog, we are focused on Market PvP everyday. Today, I’m going to discuss the T2 Salvage Market, which is undergoing a pronounced shift given the recent changes in exploration.

    Target Scope

    Target market: The Forge

    Date range: 03/07/25 – 03/09/25

    Commodities:

    • Impetus Console
    • Power Conduit
    • Thruster Console
    • Single-Crystal Superalloy I-Beam

    All chosen off of TheOz.Space’s The Week’s OZ Report Dashboard, under priced list for the week of September 1st.

    The Data

    I start off with the ask and buys of all four components and the trend is down across the board.

    There are plenty of spikes and valleys but not ones that are producing strong outliers. As you can see there has been a general decrease from the start of July before the 11 July exploration patch. The rate drop differs after the date, so to apply a blanket statement on the rebalance effect, other than salvage was already going down isn’t the story here.

    Spread percentages are rocky but steady but in looking at the Thruster Console, it rose 150% points from 11 July to 03 September, which was beginning of a three day dip in the component that wasn’t experienced by any other of the components studied. The most volatile component was the Single-Crystal Superalloy I-Beam with some bigger spikes but for the most part, the salvage profitability remained stable.

    I went in for a deeper dive into the volume for the Thrusters Console to see if I could pinpoint what exactly happened during that initial crash on 11th.

    The crash in spread was not due to a supply and demand shift, but rather the shock of the market. However, given that the shock was only evident in the Thruster Console, that should highlight the importance of the material.

    Additionally, I know of at least one whale that is heavily influencing the demand in the salvage market resulting in these waves of demand that has pushed the baseline higher.

    Analysis

    With the Thruster Consoles being prime materials in velocity rigs, the need for them is one of constant demand. For the markets, demand is currently high, whether this actual demand for production demand versus speculators in the market is quite another thing.

    Salvage is known for intense speculation. Sir SmashAlot is well known in the EVE station trading community, who is regularly featured on Twitch streamer and market commentator Oz, for being a trillion ISK salvage speculator. Clearly some of the demand above is related to Sir SmashAlot getting into the market at a time when the spread percentage crashed, thus making it much easier to increase demand and move the needle in terms of baseline demand.

    It should also be noted that, demand has not consistently outstripped supply, which suggests that the whales are biding their time to collect and then dump at the right time or at least release in spurts to not overwhelm the market.

    Given the market is flush and healthy and so is production, there should be no problems with salvage prices becoming volatile overall. While supply is getting further buffed, this will depressed prices, at least for the moment, so again whales are building a stockpile.

    This generally means we are going to see hull prices continue to sink and may offset some of the pyerite costs.

    Recommendations

    Explorers: Amass your salvage and hold onto these items until they are worth more. I would prioritize data sites over relic sites because the data market is still solid, but given the exploration changes affect both types of exploration sites, it is likely data salvage is also likely getting depressed as well.

    Station Traders: This is a buy and hold situation. I don’t see spread really opening up until the prices stabilize and CCP finding equilibrium in the salvage markets vs production.

    At the end of the day, it’s a lot of whales moving the markets but I would argue to hold onto your salvage until there’s better stabilization of the drop rates and production rates really ramp up.

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    Sources

    Adam4Eve API – Market Price History

    EVE Online July MER

    The Oz

    Discord

    Reddit

  • Commentary: July 2025 MER

    Welcome back to Auric Quanta Strategies’ Market Analysis blog. I have been away in real life enjoying my summer and ready to head into the fall strong. I am going to ease back into posting and only post on Thursday for the next few weeks and we will see how the rest of my schedule in real life, corp and business life, and FFXIV all mingle, because somehow I have to keep moving mountains while getting enough sleep.

    The July Monthly Economic Report came out this Monday, the 18th of August, which is very late. Supposedly, CCP had issues with their data processing, which seems odd to me that they have such issues given the vast amounts of data they produce with ESI.

    The hot topic on everyone’s mind is the status of Pyerite. CCP buffed the output of Pyerite by 10% from Scordites and Morduniums on the 31st, after buffing it in late June.

    Pyerite is a foundational mineral in T1 hulls and modules, though T2 hulls and modules are not as constrained by the lack of pyerite on the public markets. So without pyerite, industry begins to halt and there in lies the problem. No ships and modules to build, it becomes more expensive to fly.

    Other minerals continue to push the Mineral Price Index down, but the price of Pyerite remains fixed at around 30 ISK, which CCP has deemed too high of cost.

    This calculus is informed by the fact that production, both primary (reactions, ore reprocessing, PI, the like) and secondary (modules and hulls), is down in terms of their price indexes and very dramatic fall in terms of production value. However this indicates that the markets have not lost a lot of value, and thus production remains to be viable in the market.

    But what does this mean for pyerite and CCP’s push to drive down prices?

    Effectively, CCP is trying to push commodities and finished products’ prices lower to effectively make it cheaper and easier to fly, which means more ISK flow and, potentially, more PLEX purchases and redemption.

    However, given the multiple buffs of pyerite, supply and demand have not fully reconciled. Looking at the graphs below, there is an uptick in mining value and there is an upswing in asteroid mining volume in null sec after a significant decrease in June suggesting that the alliance shuffle and moves have completed and mining resumes at rates more in-line with numbers from March.

    However, key in this is that null sec mining is up, not high sec, and given that asteroid ore that melts into pyerite is not very common in null, means CCP’s attempts to get miners out on the belts will have limited success, at least outside of high sec.

    That may be strategic on CCP’s part to get new players a piece of the action they need to get going into solidifying their engagement. The moneyed oldbies and industrial titans need to realize they cannot sustain EVE’s business model indefinitely and that investors in Pearl Abyss cannot wait much longer for EVE to remain a niche of a niche world. That’s the unfortunate reality of late stage capitalism.

    Additionally, the MER does not take into account private contracts and corp/alliance buybacks, so it might be making pyerite from CCP’s point of view scarcer than it really is on the ground. This then would explain why the Mineral Price Index and production price indexes are not falling at an even pace. This again suggests that CCP wants newbros actively producing and often times don’t have a strong corp presence.

    Takeaways

    Miners – Get out on the belts and pop those R4 moons. This is prime opportunity time to get lots of ore in high sec. Low sec also needs mining activity but considering low sec is as, if not more, dangerous than null and sov null these days, do take a few big guns out with you. Low sec has more Mordunium, which reduces into purely pyerite, so if you don’t have access to R4 moons, this is a prime reason to be out in low sec.

    Industrialists – No big takeaways other than continuing to produce at the rates you are at right now. If you are short on pyerite and don’t have access to cheap pyerite and/or don’t feel like dealing with the public markets, shift your lines to less intensive pyerite blueprints and focus on salvage now that has effectively lost value on the market given the recent changes in exploration.

    Newbros – It’s your time to shine. Get those Ventures mining Scordite, but also fire up the manufacturing modules and get producing. To be super successful takes time, but give it a go and see how it feels!

    In short, we will have to sit tight and see how the recent buff on pyerite is ultimately consumed in production in August but we won’t know until the August MER report is released next month.

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    Sources

    EVE Online July MER

    EVE Tycoon

    The Oz

    Discord

  • Too Cold to Hold: Ice Product Markets Aren’t Melting Yet

    Too Cold to Hold: Ice Product Markets Aren’t Melting Yet

    [Early Correction]: Goons are moving, just not to Delve. Wires got very crossed do to getting intel from different places, but also real life has been very active with a lot things going on, thus shifting attention there rather than in EVE.

    The economic war machine must feed, and I found some timely intel on ice and ice product trends on Reddit—perfectly coinciding with the revelation that Asher Elias has ordered the Goons to move.

    Earlier this week (Monday), I shared a preliminary graph and post on Reddit. Admittedly, my initial numbers were off due to some less-than-stellar programming on my part. However, the core market trend remained valid, and after finalizing the data through Tuesday, June 17, there’s plenty to report.

    Market Scope

    Commodities – Factional Ice Products

    • H – Isotopes
    • He – Isotopes
    • N – Isotopes
    • O – Isotopes

    Time Frame – 01 June to 17 June 2025

    Market – The Forge

    Observations

    The market for ice products has and is highly volital and the move order did nothing to help things.

    As you can see while the ask price stays relatively stable for everything but He-Isotopes. However, the bid prices for all shoot up.

    The spread percentage graph is a graph of valleys and peaks:

    He-Isotopes (June 15–17)

    • Bid Price: +23.56%
    • Ask Price: +44.65%
    • Spread %: +269.46%

    O-Isotopes (Same Time Frame)

    • Bid Price: +26.73%
    • Ask Price: +0.11% (flat)
    • Spread %: -222%

    For the Volume graphs, we see strong demand for He-Isotopes

    Standard inverted market, when Ellis gives the command to move the He-Isotopes Ask Volume jumps nearly 600%.

    The O-Isotope market shows inversion, but if you look back to the spread percent, this should create a situation where the ask price goes up because the margin should be greater than a loss. However, the ask price remains flat and the bid price spikes causing margins going far down.

    Analysis

    For O-Isotopes, demand appears driven by aggressive, even desperate, acquisition strategies. Ask prices have flatlined, creating a compression scenario, buyers want in, but sellers aren’t moving enough product.

    This fits with logistics trends: the Goon freight fleet relies heavily on Gallente ships, requiring large volumes of O-Isotopes. The limited ask volume isn’t enough to support a major fleet move. While traders briefly increased volume, that surge collapsed almost immediately.

    Meanwhile, the Amarr-based He-Isotope market is behaving more normally, following expected logic under stress.

    Recommendations

    For Traders:

    This is a bad market to be in, at least for O-Isotopes. If you’re late to the Helium play, that ship may have already sailed. I expect the market to correct soon as the move completes. If you are already committed and are selling, raise your prices ASAP, otherwise you might miss the benefits.

    For Miners:

    Now’s your moment. Hit the high-sec factional ice belts hard. Push back against bots, farmers, and bullies. With null sec heating up again, we may be watching the start of a “Roman Empiring” scenario, where Goon sovereignty stretches too thin.
    (Special thanks to u/PomegranateSlow5624 for rallying miners in Monday’s Reddit thread.)

    The command to move into Delve didn’t just ignite military logistics, it sent shockwaves through the ice product markets. The bid-ask spread behavior, volume shifts, and compression dynamics reveal deeper patterns about faction fleet preferences, supply chain stress, and speculative surges.

    Helium-Isotopes may have already crested, but Oxygen-Isotopes are showing signs of dangerous compression—a situation where traders risk squeezing margins into the red, especially as ask volumes stay stagnant.

    I will continue monitoring these disruptions across regional markets and commodity types. This analysis is part of my ongoing commitment to delivering grounded, actionable economic intelligence for capsuleers who want to stay ahead of the curve.

    Want targeted insights for your corp, alliance, or industrial logistics?
    Commission a custom market report or subscribe to weekly updates at auricquantastrategies.space

    Spotted something in the market I didn’t?
    I welcome feedback, counterpoints, and collaboration. Let’s make sense of New Eden’s economy together.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution

  • Quick Preview: Vulture Market Collapse Incoming?

    Quick Preview: Vulture Market Collapse Incoming?

    Before I drop the Auric Intel Report preview later this week, here’s a snapshot of the Vulture market:

    📉 Ask prices down 30% (28 May – 15 June)

    📉 Bid prices down 22% (28 May – 15 June)

    We’re seeing fast-moving price action and likely early signals of a doctrine shake-up or at least a signal the Horde is uninterested in the Goons. Stay sharp.

    🗓 Friday: Report preview and goes live

    📦 Later this month: Full Vulture doctrine breakdown

    → Make sure you’re subscribed so you don’t miss the drop.

  • Wartime Economies: Swimming with the Ferox Navy Fishes

    Wartime Economies: Swimming with the Ferox Navy Fishes

    So as we have had a day without a scrimish between the expansionist Goonswarm/Imperium (Goons)and the PandemicHorde (Horde) after the Goons erected a Foritzer on the Horde’s Keepstar Grid in The Great Wildlands last month. Tonight, the Foritzer completes its achoring, basically meaning it is either fight or flight for the Horde (my intel has the Horde running, but who knows…).

    If successful, what will that mean for null sec, the Goons’ plans, and if PandemicHorde can keep going after all the dust settles remains to be seen, I, however, am interested in the ISK numbers of the Ferox Navy Issue, which was the hull that had the greatest destruction across both sides in the 04 June battle.

    I pulled the updated market data today and saw the final total volumes of the Ask/Sell and Bid/Buy markets of the Ferox Navy from yesterday, the 05th, and thought I would show my findings before the big party tonight, some time around 11pm EST USTZ.

    Observations

    Here we see that the inversion of the market, that I warned against, happens with a supply that begins to outstrip the demand for buyers. Sellers (the ask line) now can’t find a market in which support top dollar ask prices and either fill a much cheaper buy order or put up the hull on for a lower profit they could have gotten, but one that has diminishing returns.

    We see that in the next graphs:

    In the Ask Graph we see the big spikes, but then we see a drop after 2 June. When the Ask/Buy volumes switch with more Ask on the market, we see that price start to drop.

    The buy/bid price is also because now there are more buyers that can wait for the bids to be filled and they can command a better price because the going ask is now effectively now too high.

    As you can see, as the bid orders raise in price and when the ask orders shrink in price the spread changes are dramatic.

    As you can see here on the 27th of May, circled in fuchsia on both charts, the lowest ask volume is also when the change in the spread is largest, suggesting a rise in the ask price. The same thing happens on 2 June, with the points circled in purple.

    Analysis

    If you were an industrialist that got going with Ferox Navies after the Goons dropped the Fortizer, you probably caught the first wave if you were early enough. If you started producing after the Goons declared war, you probably caught the second wave after a couple of days of waiting. But if you were not in the market by 02 June, your luck ran out and the volume rises to the inversion of the market.

    From June 02nd and June 05th, the sell price dropped 15.42% as the volume went up 54.62%, showing just how fickle the market can be when there is a big war and a large destruction of hulls.

    Overall, it seems that the Ferox Navies were purchased by an alliance early on as there is that large glut of immediate sells and that crashed dramatically once the Goons dropped the Fortizer.

    It does look like the Goons were preparing for war before the Fortizer event, putting in bid orders for the hull well before war was ever declared and the Ferox Navies needed. The Horde went after the Rokh initially and that fleet was decimated, forcing them into the Ferox Navies in the 04 June battle, which was still resoundly destroyed by the Goons.

    Recommendations

    • Start your production of Ferox Navies (unless the doctrines change) at the first sign of trouble between null sec alliances. The producers that started production after June 02, trying to capitalize on the day’s jump, a couple of days after the war declaration, were way too late and effectively lost money in The Forge markets.
    • If you are central intel for your null sec alliance, keep your eyes on the market orders, there was movement way before anything was happening with the Goons, and while there is no guarantee those markets are moving because of another alliance, keeping tabs on doctrine hulls in the market can be a sly way of predicting movement of, well, at least someone.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this war and potential battle for the ages? Did you get caught in that market volume inversion and now operating at a loss?

    If you need more in-depth information on the hull or others (Hearing there’s a need for the Vulture among both or just one) then feel free to contact me either in game at ‘Matt Shigella’, or online @godislobster on Discord or email me at mattshigella@gmail.com and we can talk about how I can get you the info you need.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    EveTools – 04 June 2025, 03 June 2025

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution