Auric Quanta Strategies

Tag: EVE Market Analysis

  • What the Hek?

    What the Hek?

    I was discussing the latest meta with a contact on Discord and quickly made some demand curve discoveries that might be signaling things to come in the future of Null Sec politics and territory expansion.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Carrier-Class Hull in Metropolis from 25/02/25 to 25/02/26
    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Tech II Light Fighter in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    Looking into a carrier-class ship, we are seeing greater bid/buy demand outstripping sell/ask volumes in Hek. Additionally, as we look into the current meta for carrier-based fighters, a similar pattern, lined up to the time around the dissolution of PanFam, but also the Carrier buff around the same time, there seems to be evidence of someone in Hek potentially trying to support internal manufacturing with external buys to be on the ready.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of All Carrier Hulls (except Vanguard) in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    However, broadening the scope to all carriers, this inversion goes away and doesn’t manifest until the end of January of this year. In addition, the big spike in both curves around the end of 2025 suggests that someone was both buying and selling in great quantity. However, given that the spike is on one date and then returns to normal suggests a few things, 1) mistaken orders that were subsequently taken off the market the next day, 2) a data processing issue (the rest of the data looks good and within normal parameters), or 3) vaild short order with the intention to manipulate the market, that was was ultimately resolved the next day. 

    For null-bloc politics, bringing carrier hulls into hi sec trading hubs is not profitable nor possible (carriers can’t fly in hi sec) given the high-risk nature of bringing high-value cargo into low and high sec space.

    If this in fact, a market driven by null sec politics, then null sec is going to start speeding up carrier construction in null sec, considering that there seems to be interest in what is fast becoming the dominant meta. There is potential that this is low sec alliances related, and that given null is quiet at the moment.

    The question, of course, on my mind is why Hek? Wouldn’t it be easier to base everything from Jita? It might lie with the fact that Jita and the surrounding area are ripe for ganking squads. Hek is more out of the way in Metropolis and not as directed to as the central location for trade by CCP. Hek is also relatively close to both the Imperium and Winter Coalition null-sec territories. Which side or sides are using Hek as the base of carrier logistic prepping and without any character information attached to order books, we cannot really know. It is clear that someone with a vested interest in the dissolution of PamFam is either rebuilding through hi sec, or prepping for a future escalation. 

    Hek does have the new advantage of having EVEGuru’s, led by Fern Kitsuen, new industrial park in Anher. There is a good chance that Hek will further develop into the second-largest trade hub. However, given that there are rumors that CCP has plans for developing a more robust trading market, instead of having Jita be the central market, EVEGuru seems to have lucked out.

    In other ways, Minmatar space is popular for Faction Warfare content, so it comes with the need for more ships. Carriers can’t roam high sec, Hek would be the primary place to at least stock up on items for FW, so they could be transported. An additional caveat is that my data is looking at region and not system, so while Hek is in Metropolis, and that is useful as a signal, we also run into that limitation, and the carriers being purchased are being traded in low sec. 

    The main takeaway of this brief basically comes down to if push came to shove and war breaks out, there is likely someone already prepping. If you are a null sec bloc or have vested interests out that way, it is time to start thinking about starting your preparations sooner rather than later. If you are an industrialist, it’s time to start thinking about spreading out and considering other markets that are growing. 

    I might be back writing (doing a bit of real-life literary writing too), so if you want to catch my market briefs, be sure to subscribe to the blog, when a post goes live. Don’t plan on having a regular day to post, so subscribing is the only way you will see everything

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    Sources

    Python

    Jypter Notebooks

    Adam4Eve.eu API

    EVERef

    Personal anonymous sources

  • Salvage Bittervets: Nothing too weird about crashing the market

    Salvage Bittervets: Nothing too weird about crashing the market

    This post is a week late because my boyfriend was in town last week and I chose to spend time with him. Real life always comes first.

    Eve is known for its high octane, hardcore PvP culture, though more in terms of blowing up ships and ganking. Given this is a market blog, we are focused on Market PvP everyday. Today, I’m going to discuss the T2 Salvage Market, which is undergoing a pronounced shift given the recent changes in exploration.

    Target Scope

    Target market: The Forge

    Date range: 03/07/25 – 03/09/25

    Commodities:

    • Impetus Console
    • Power Conduit
    • Thruster Console
    • Single-Crystal Superalloy I-Beam

    All chosen off of TheOz.Space’s The Week’s OZ Report Dashboard, under priced list for the week of September 1st.

    The Data

    I start off with the ask and buys of all four components and the trend is down across the board.

    There are plenty of spikes and valleys but not ones that are producing strong outliers. As you can see there has been a general decrease from the start of July before the 11 July exploration patch. The rate drop differs after the date, so to apply a blanket statement on the rebalance effect, other than salvage was already going down isn’t the story here.

    Spread percentages are rocky but steady but in looking at the Thruster Console, it rose 150% points from 11 July to 03 September, which was beginning of a three day dip in the component that wasn’t experienced by any other of the components studied. The most volatile component was the Single-Crystal Superalloy I-Beam with some bigger spikes but for the most part, the salvage profitability remained stable.

    I went in for a deeper dive into the volume for the Thrusters Console to see if I could pinpoint what exactly happened during that initial crash on 11th.

    The crash in spread was not due to a supply and demand shift, but rather the shock of the market. However, given that the shock was only evident in the Thruster Console, that should highlight the importance of the material.

    Additionally, I know of at least one whale that is heavily influencing the demand in the salvage market resulting in these waves of demand that has pushed the baseline higher.

    Analysis

    With the Thruster Consoles being prime materials in velocity rigs, the need for them is one of constant demand. For the markets, demand is currently high, whether this actual demand for production demand versus speculators in the market is quite another thing.

    Salvage is known for intense speculation. Sir SmashAlot is well known in the EVE station trading community, who is regularly featured on Twitch streamer and market commentator Oz, for being a trillion ISK salvage speculator. Clearly some of the demand above is related to Sir SmashAlot getting into the market at a time when the spread percentage crashed, thus making it much easier to increase demand and move the needle in terms of baseline demand.

    It should also be noted that, demand has not consistently outstripped supply, which suggests that the whales are biding their time to collect and then dump at the right time or at least release in spurts to not overwhelm the market.

    Given the market is flush and healthy and so is production, there should be no problems with salvage prices becoming volatile overall. While supply is getting further buffed, this will depressed prices, at least for the moment, so again whales are building a stockpile.

    This generally means we are going to see hull prices continue to sink and may offset some of the pyerite costs.

    Recommendations

    Explorers: Amass your salvage and hold onto these items until they are worth more. I would prioritize data sites over relic sites because the data market is still solid, but given the exploration changes affect both types of exploration sites, it is likely data salvage is also likely getting depressed as well.

    Station Traders: This is a buy and hold situation. I don’t see spread really opening up until the prices stabilize and CCP finding equilibrium in the salvage markets vs production.

    At the end of the day, it’s a lot of whales moving the markets but I would argue to hold onto your salvage until there’s better stabilization of the drop rates and production rates really ramp up.

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    Sources

    Adam4Eve API – Market Price History

    EVE Online July MER

    The Oz

    Discord

    Reddit

  • That’s a Gneiss Venture you got there: Pyerite, Low Sec, and CCPlease

    Pyerite seems to be the consistent story from week to week this month, and the elephant in the room when online with my corp. In the past couple of months, I have been considering creating a mineral index because of its centralness to industry, and because for the past two weeks, all I have thought about is pyerite, industry, and markets, leaving less time for other things to enjoy.

    In the resulting discussions from last week’s post on July’s MER, someone chimed in with the fact that other sources of pyerite are going unbuffed by CCP, both R4 moon ore and Gneiss.

    The problem with R4 moon mining is unprofitable in comparison to Metenox moon mining, with R4 moons losing their luster as other moon goo becomes more popular with miners, industrialists, and market players. The problem with that is, well, people are leaving pyerite trapped in the moon and not trading in Jita.

    Secondly, while low sec enjoys some of the best fights in the game, the mining deposits are a shadow of its High and Null secs brethren, meaning that gneiss is only available for mining in sectors that aren’t conducive to bringing out a big mining fleet. At least with Null Sec, the idea is that the alliances out there are often running their own fleets in the safety of their bloc.

    As one can see from these graphs, there isn’t much in the way of gneiss making large profits. While these aren’t demand graphs, clearly the lack of bid activity signals that, at least Iridescent Gneiss, is not in hot demand from buyers.

    It is important to note that while the spread percentage of Iridescent Gneiss has skyrocketed in the past month, it may not last. Given that all three types shown here do seem to be on the rise, with the ask price, along with a weakening bid price, the margins seem to suggest that the market has two ways it can go, and it is in a standoff.

    Running the volume numbers on Prismatic Gneiss suggests that there is significant demand; however, it is the ask market controls the profit margins. This sets up a price tension that one side is going to have to cave on. Given that the ask volume is trending down, the bid market is clearly meeting the sellers at the ask price, thus boosting the profit margin. Then this drops demand by extension, but also creates a problem with buyers snapping up all the available ore on the market, creating some issues in the long run with supply.

    These graphs show CCP is not incentivizing low sec miners to get out to the belts. Given that just regular Gneiss reduces to 2000 units of pyerite, if Gneiss spawn rates were higher, there would be more to effectively reduce down into pyerite, to help the market recover. But there would also be a need to help manage belt security, which CCP will largely leave the miners to the mercy of gankers.

    While there is some safety in numbers, mining vessels aren’t all that speedy to warp out and so that could cause more problems. There goes your 1B ISK ship along with all that ore. Mining fleets could ultimately do easy freelance security jobs, getting newbros into low sec and into pvp, but that also could present a mismatch of skill between the gankers outfitted in strong fits and pvp skills and newbros with fits that are going to ultimately be underpowered by lack of pvp skill and experience.

    Again, I think at some level that since High Sec mining is the second highest, I do think the high sec buffs are more about helping newbros get into the game and build some ISK wealth so they can ultimately go long term with the game. However, newbros can only do so much mining, especially when the high sec asteroids don’t bring in a lot of pyerite and minerals anyway. Clearly, that is not enough to meet the demand of pyerite and lower the price and sending them out to low sec without proper protection only to get ganked is only dissuading them from continuing.

    The sudden influx of pyerite would have the market go haywire, which is probably the reason why CCP is ultimately being highly, and perhaps, overly cautious about pushing moon goo and gneiss too far, but the problem is they still think the price is too high.

    The likely story is that most of the pyerite being mined is now being sent through the private contract markets, which is causing the inability to move the price in Jita. At some point, that pyerite does need to come back to the Jita market to affect the price.

    Ultimately, the larger problem is CCP looking at the wrong signals on pyerite and ore demand and in order for them to fix the market in the way they see fit they need to be making investments in low sec as a starting point.

    Enjoy my analyses? Subscribe below to get my posts directly to your inbox.

    No ads. No upsells. Just the content.

    Sources

    Adam4Eve API – Market Price History

    EVE Online July MER

    The Oz

    Discord

    Reddit