Auric Quanta Strategies

Tag: eve market trends

  • What the Hek?

    What the Hek?

    I was discussing the latest meta with a contact on Discord and quickly made some demand curve discoveries that might be signaling things to come in the future of Null Sec politics and territory expansion.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Carrier-Class Hull in Metropolis from 25/02/25 to 25/02/26
    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of a Tech II Light Fighter in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    Looking into a carrier-class ship, we are seeing greater bid/buy demand outstripping sell/ask volumes in Hek. Additionally, as we look into the current meta for carrier-based fighters, a similar pattern, lined up to the time around the dissolution of PanFam, but also the Carrier buff around the same time, there seems to be evidence of someone in Hek potentially trying to support internal manufacturing with external buys to be on the ready.

    Average Daily Trade Volume by Date of All Carrier Hulls (except Vanguard) in Metropolis from 01/09/25 to 25/02/26

    However, broadening the scope to all carriers, this inversion goes away and doesn’t manifest until the end of January of this year. In addition, the big spike in both curves around the end of 2025 suggests that someone was both buying and selling in great quantity. However, given that the spike is on one date and then returns to normal suggests a few things, 1) mistaken orders that were subsequently taken off the market the next day, 2) a data processing issue (the rest of the data looks good and within normal parameters), or 3) vaild short order with the intention to manipulate the market, that was was ultimately resolved the next day. 

    For null-bloc politics, bringing carrier hulls into hi sec trading hubs is not profitable nor possible (carriers can’t fly in hi sec) given the high-risk nature of bringing high-value cargo into low and high sec space.

    If this in fact, a market driven by null sec politics, then null sec is going to start speeding up carrier construction in null sec, considering that there seems to be interest in what is fast becoming the dominant meta. There is potential that this is low sec alliances related, and that given null is quiet at the moment.

    The question, of course, on my mind is why Hek? Wouldn’t it be easier to base everything from Jita? It might lie with the fact that Jita and the surrounding area are ripe for ganking squads. Hek is more out of the way in Metropolis and not as directed to as the central location for trade by CCP. Hek is also relatively close to both the Imperium and Winter Coalition null-sec territories. Which side or sides are using Hek as the base of carrier logistic prepping and without any character information attached to order books, we cannot really know. It is clear that someone with a vested interest in the dissolution of PamFam is either rebuilding through hi sec, or prepping for a future escalation. 

    Hek does have the new advantage of having EVEGuru’s, led by Fern Kitsuen, new industrial park in Anher. There is a good chance that Hek will further develop into the second-largest trade hub. However, given that there are rumors that CCP has plans for developing a more robust trading market, instead of having Jita be the central market, EVEGuru seems to have lucked out.

    In other ways, Minmatar space is popular for Faction Warfare content, so it comes with the need for more ships. Carriers can’t roam high sec, Hek would be the primary place to at least stock up on items for FW, so they could be transported. An additional caveat is that my data is looking at region and not system, so while Hek is in Metropolis, and that is useful as a signal, we also run into that limitation, and the carriers being purchased are being traded in low sec. 

    The main takeaway of this brief basically comes down to if push came to shove and war breaks out, there is likely someone already prepping. If you are a null sec bloc or have vested interests out that way, it is time to start thinking about starting your preparations sooner rather than later. If you are an industrialist, it’s time to start thinking about spreading out and considering other markets that are growing. 

    I might be back writing (doing a bit of real-life literary writing too), so if you want to catch my market briefs, be sure to subscribe to the blog, when a post goes live. Don’t plan on having a regular day to post, so subscribing is the only way you will see everything

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    Sources

    Python

    Jypter Notebooks

    Adam4Eve.eu API

    EVERef

    Personal anonymous sources

  • Commentary: June’s MER & Minerals

    Commentary: June’s MER & Minerals

    CCP dropped the Monthly Economic Report (MER) for June in the morning (USTZ ET) of July 10th.

    There are some nice market nuggets inside the report and at least two I’ll highlight here.

    The Data

    • Mineral Price Index rose 9.5% suggesting that 1) the pyerite buffs had limited effect on the monthly index since they were late in the month, 2) according to analysis by Oz, pyerite bounced and went back up to pre-patch levels, 3) if pyerite is not the influencing mineral, there’s another shortage somewhere in the markets that’s causing a small rebound.
    • Primary production (so reactions, mining reprocessing, and assorted production) is up 9.5% while secondary production (modules, hulls, components, etc) were down 3.3% suggesting somewhere there’s a production blockage.
    • Mining value is also down significantly, correcting from the big boom in May.

    Analysis

    Overall, the markets are starting to correct from the highs of May. This suggests that war preparations were well under underway in May, and if people were watching the markets close enough, industrialists might have been able to keep themselves from losing money on the markets as demand would eventually end, and production lagging behind demand. This puts my post on the Ferox Navy Issue hull within a broader context, because the producers that were early on the markets were the most successful at getting the best ask price.

    While the battles between the PandemicHorde and Imperium were large, the sheer lack of battles turned them ultimately into skirmishes, thus reducing destruction and reducing demand.

    In addition, the lack of pyerite in the market has also hamstrung production efforts with industrialists, probably lightening their load of production to strictly items without large quantities of pyerite needed or only producing only needed items that need pyerite. This is also emblematic of a situation where the fleet stock was already high and that those that saw the pyrite crunch coming, were likely over producing in advance.

    The lack of minerals is also likely due to lower mining values because of lack of full scale mining ventures out in the belts. This likely due to the most recent null sec reorganization and movement, which suggests other minerals are going to get squeezed similar to pyerite.

    I’m already seeing some evidence in the mexallon markets of an inflation of demand so until null sec movement settles down, I suspect the mineral market and the EVE Mineral Price Index will continue to rise.

    Takeaways

    • Miners: If you aren’t already mining for pyerite, and to a lesser extent mexallon, get out to the fields. Feel free sell directly to bids because this point that is where the biggest demand is. If you aren’t part of the sov null and generally stay in high or low sec, you should be able to capitalize.
    • Industrialists/Producers: Formalize contracts with miners (or freelance jobs) to get minerals to you. The market is still trying to find where it will land, especially after the patch, and the market doesn’t seem to be willing to let pyerite to relax. Since that is the case, I would recommend staying off the markets and continue to work through contract.
    • Traders: If y’all are reason that pyerite is not settling, let it go before you crash the entire economy (at least on the market boards). Pyerite is crucial to the game and why CCP is willing to inflate the availability. The minute it gets expensive to fly ships, the minute everything around the game stalls content-wise. Not everyone has billions and trillions of ISK in reserve and the real world economy is starting to slow, that creates a very risky situation for CCP and EVE, who rely on PLEX purchases and subs, and the minute it becomes more expensive to play, more players will drop out of the game.

    Like my analyses and want to keep up with my posts? Consider subscribing and get the post sent directly to your inbox!

    Sources

    EVE Online June MER

    EVE Markets – Mexallon

    The Oz

    Discord

  • Heat Index of 37°C: O-Isotopes Heating Up

    Heat Index of 37°C: O-Isotopes Heating Up

    It is hot, humid, and sunny today where I live, but also things in Jita are also hot on the Ice Product market with O-Isotopes correcting course as Null Sec alliances play musical regions. Let’s get right into the graphs for today’s short update post.

    Market Scope

    Commodity: O-Isotopes

    Time Frame: June 11-22

    Market: The Forge

    Observations

    First a clarification, I have been using the ask/bid/volume high values, however it was not the best measure I could be using to understand the markets long term or shifting through the noise of prices or volumes that were outliers. Going forward, I’ll be using ask/bid/volume average values to better track long term trends, and find the signals with greater clarity. Better Analysis = Better Outcomes

    As you can see in the graph below the Ask Price has plateaued twice, but on the 20th the price started rising. From 17-22 of June, the price has risen 13.08%.

    The bid price has also been rising, however, that has only risen 3.72% since the 17th, which was the end date to my Thursday market post, which has only plateaued on the 21st.

    The compression from the flat ask, rising bid price from last post has rebounded and while the number is less than the initial rebound the spread % difference is still very high, with a rise of 1626%.

    If we look at the Volume Dynamics of O-Isotopes, we are seeing a closing in on inversion again. Clearly, miners feel comfortable with now selling their refined ice products on the Ask market rather than going directly to the buyers that need the ice.

    Analysis

    Clearly with multiple moves happening in Null Sec, the price is increasing, but we are seeing the rise in ask volume. The abundance of buy orders is now for the most part over given moves are finishing their final stages and thus O-Isotopes are no longer needed.

    Miners will have to be careful not to over sell the market because that could create a problem for traders, so given the trends in the market, I am forecasting that the market will invert, driving prices and spread down once again.

    Recommendations

    • Miners can still sell directly to buyers, but be careful in adding to the Ask Volume.
    • Traders, this is not an investment, unless you are going to buy into the dip, but honestly, I would hold off.

    Until the market can stabilize, I suggest waiting for any real investment either in product or trading. Additionally, I expect a dip in spread, however, I don’t expect a deep negative spread coming like on the 17th, but given the fact the Null Blocs are solidifying their new territories, demand and price pressures should be easing on both sides and there should be a stabilization of the ask/bid prices.

    Part of a Null bloc, what is your take on this? Is the price growth hampering your wallet? Miners, what is your preference, either sell directly to buyers, or are you going more towards the ask market? Comment below.