The Monthly Economic Report for February came out this past week, and while everything was down, I wanted to take the data from previous MERs to see if I could compare market regions to see where there was growth and where there was decline, specifically if the movement in Metropolis I discovered a few weeks ago was cutting into The Forge’s market share.
When comparing just pure raw trade volume, The Forge, of course, dwarfs Metropolis by several times. That is no surprise.
When looking at the log scale, a pattern emerges. Both Jita and Hek follow each other in terms of peaks and valleys. Metropolis is almost always about a month behind. This, too, is unsurprising; after all, they exist in the same universe with the same player base and the same political happenings. But if you look closely at the ends of both graphs, where Metropolis ends higher in 01/26 than in 01/25, The Forge ends lower in the same period.
That signaled to me that there is something going on in those particular markets and led me to this graph below:
In pegging performance to the beginning of 01/25 and its relative position throughout the year, Metropolis’ trade value grows quite significantly over time, whereas The Forge has been slowly declining over the past year in comparison to where it was in 01/2025.
There is something behind this growth from September until peaking in December. The implosion of PanFam in November clearly is what caused the contraction in both markets.
I’ll temper my earlier conclusions that we are seeing Metropolis’ growth from EVEGuru Foundries in Metropolis, because while that is likely helping, Metropolis grew rapidly the month before. So, whatever is elevating Metropolis at that growth rate, EVEGuru Foundries is clearly going to tap into the existing market growth should it continue. This is also to say that while EVEGuru has yet to release production rates using their manufacturing rigs, it is unclear if EVEGuru will affect markets to any degree. It is too early to tell.
When graphing the trade data with MER February 2026’s data, above, we are seeing that both regions are starting to slide in earnest. If your portfolios are looking a bit rougher than usual, you are not imagining things.
What is going on there is, of course, subject to further exploration in The Forge and the subject of next week’s brief. Is it due to sov null being too quiet (as mentioned above, PanFam’s implosion did burst both markets’ gains), seasonal trends in the user base, or due to timing based on FanFest and expansion plans?
Like the seasons, markets do come back to life eventually, and we’ll see if spring (or lack of) weather in the Northern Hemisphere or FanFest/Expansion help get the markets back in the right direction. Ultimately, with the New Player Experience likely to shake the markets up come later this year, and rumors of changes in market hubs, looking closely at the data seems to be pointing that change is afoot and The Forge/Jita’s dominance is potentially looking threatened.
As always, interested in your thoughts. Write a comment or ask a question below.
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Sources
Python
Jypter Notebooks
Monthly Economic Reports 01/25-01/26 found on EVE Ref
Monthly Economic Reports 02/26 EVE Online
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