Auric Quanta Strategies

Tag: faction commodities

  • Heat Index of 37°C: O-Isotopes Heating Up

    Heat Index of 37°C: O-Isotopes Heating Up

    It is hot, humid, and sunny today where I live, but also things in Jita are also hot on the Ice Product market with O-Isotopes correcting course as Null Sec alliances play musical regions. Let’s get right into the graphs for today’s short update post.

    Market Scope

    Commodity: O-Isotopes

    Time Frame: June 11-22

    Market: The Forge

    Observations

    First a clarification, I have been using the ask/bid/volume high values, however it was not the best measure I could be using to understand the markets long term or shifting through the noise of prices or volumes that were outliers. Going forward, I’ll be using ask/bid/volume average values to better track long term trends, and find the signals with greater clarity. Better Analysis = Better Outcomes

    As you can see in the graph below the Ask Price has plateaued twice, but on the 20th the price started rising. From 17-22 of June, the price has risen 13.08%.

    The bid price has also been rising, however, that has only risen 3.72% since the 17th, which was the end date to my Thursday market post, which has only plateaued on the 21st.

    The compression from the flat ask, rising bid price from last post has rebounded and while the number is less than the initial rebound the spread % difference is still very high, with a rise of 1626%.

    If we look at the Volume Dynamics of O-Isotopes, we are seeing a closing in on inversion again. Clearly, miners feel comfortable with now selling their refined ice products on the Ask market rather than going directly to the buyers that need the ice.

    Analysis

    Clearly with multiple moves happening in Null Sec, the price is increasing, but we are seeing the rise in ask volume. The abundance of buy orders is now for the most part over given moves are finishing their final stages and thus O-Isotopes are no longer needed.

    Miners will have to be careful not to over sell the market because that could create a problem for traders, so given the trends in the market, I am forecasting that the market will invert, driving prices and spread down once again.

    Recommendations

    • Miners can still sell directly to buyers, but be careful in adding to the Ask Volume.
    • Traders, this is not an investment, unless you are going to buy into the dip, but honestly, I would hold off.

    Until the market can stabilize, I suggest waiting for any real investment either in product or trading. Additionally, I expect a dip in spread, however, I don’t expect a deep negative spread coming like on the 17th, but given the fact the Null Blocs are solidifying their new territories, demand and price pressures should be easing on both sides and there should be a stabilization of the ask/bid prices.

    Part of a Null bloc, what is your take on this? Is the price growth hampering your wallet? Miners, what is your preference, either sell directly to buyers, or are you going more towards the ask market? Comment below.

  • Too Cold to Hold: Ice Product Markets Aren’t Melting Yet

    Too Cold to Hold: Ice Product Markets Aren’t Melting Yet

    [Early Correction]: Goons are moving, just not to Delve. Wires got very crossed do to getting intel from different places, but also real life has been very active with a lot things going on, thus shifting attention there rather than in EVE.

    The economic war machine must feed, and I found some timely intel on ice and ice product trends on Reddit—perfectly coinciding with the revelation that Asher Elias has ordered the Goons to move.

    Earlier this week (Monday), I shared a preliminary graph and post on Reddit. Admittedly, my initial numbers were off due to some less-than-stellar programming on my part. However, the core market trend remained valid, and after finalizing the data through Tuesday, June 17, there’s plenty to report.

    Market Scope

    Commodities – Factional Ice Products

    • H – Isotopes
    • He – Isotopes
    • N – Isotopes
    • O – Isotopes

    Time Frame – 01 June to 17 June 2025

    Market – The Forge

    Observations

    The market for ice products has and is highly volital and the move order did nothing to help things.

    As you can see while the ask price stays relatively stable for everything but He-Isotopes. However, the bid prices for all shoot up.

    The spread percentage graph is a graph of valleys and peaks:

    He-Isotopes (June 15–17)

    • Bid Price: +23.56%
    • Ask Price: +44.65%
    • Spread %: +269.46%

    O-Isotopes (Same Time Frame)

    • Bid Price: +26.73%
    • Ask Price: +0.11% (flat)
    • Spread %: -222%

    For the Volume graphs, we see strong demand for He-Isotopes

    Standard inverted market, when Ellis gives the command to move the He-Isotopes Ask Volume jumps nearly 600%.

    The O-Isotope market shows inversion, but if you look back to the spread percent, this should create a situation where the ask price goes up because the margin should be greater than a loss. However, the ask price remains flat and the bid price spikes causing margins going far down.

    Analysis

    For O-Isotopes, demand appears driven by aggressive, even desperate, acquisition strategies. Ask prices have flatlined, creating a compression scenario, buyers want in, but sellers aren’t moving enough product.

    This fits with logistics trends: the Goon freight fleet relies heavily on Gallente ships, requiring large volumes of O-Isotopes. The limited ask volume isn’t enough to support a major fleet move. While traders briefly increased volume, that surge collapsed almost immediately.

    Meanwhile, the Amarr-based He-Isotope market is behaving more normally, following expected logic under stress.

    Recommendations

    For Traders:

    This is a bad market to be in, at least for O-Isotopes. If you’re late to the Helium play, that ship may have already sailed. I expect the market to correct soon as the move completes. If you are already committed and are selling, raise your prices ASAP, otherwise you might miss the benefits.

    For Miners:

    Now’s your moment. Hit the high-sec factional ice belts hard. Push back against bots, farmers, and bullies. With null sec heating up again, we may be watching the start of a “Roman Empiring” scenario, where Goon sovereignty stretches too thin.
    (Special thanks to u/PomegranateSlow5624 for rallying miners in Monday’s Reddit thread.)

    The command to move into Delve didn’t just ignite military logistics, it sent shockwaves through the ice product markets. The bid-ask spread behavior, volume shifts, and compression dynamics reveal deeper patterns about faction fleet preferences, supply chain stress, and speculative surges.

    Helium-Isotopes may have already crested, but Oxygen-Isotopes are showing signs of dangerous compression—a situation where traders risk squeezing margins into the red, especially as ask volumes stay stagnant.

    I will continue monitoring these disruptions across regional markets and commodity types. This analysis is part of my ongoing commitment to delivering grounded, actionable economic intelligence for capsuleers who want to stay ahead of the curve.

    Want targeted insights for your corp, alliance, or industrial logistics?
    Commission a custom market report or subscribe to weekly updates at auricquantastrategies.space

    Spotted something in the market I didn’t?
    I welcome feedback, counterpoints, and collaboration. Let’s make sense of New Eden’s economy together.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution

  • Market Report Glance:First Look into Auric Intel Reports: Warfare Vulture Doctrine Fit – High Slots

    Market Report Glance:First Look into Auric Intel Reports: Warfare Vulture Doctrine Fit – High Slots

    So I will releasing a report on the (Horde) Vulture Doctrine Fit for ISK on Friday June 20th. The report will cover all the modules in the doctrine based on kill reports during the June 04 Battle for the Vulture, the preferred Command Fleet Ship.

    The ship has bonuses for railguns which I will be highlighting the 250mm Railgun II in this post today, along with the Skirmish Command Burst II module.

    Market Scope

    Commodity – 250mm Railgun II and Skirmish Command Burst II

    Sample Regional Market – The Forge

    Time frame – 15 May 2025 to 11 June 2025 (12:30 USTZ EST)

    Observations/Analysis

    The 250mm Railgun II has seen some things during this war and the trends in The Forge is an interesting case of oversupply (ask volume Increased 466.24% from 04 June to 11 June) while not experiencing strong price spread disruption.

    Overall the price is above historical levels but both the ask/sell and bid/buy prices have fallen dramatically (Railgun is in Blue):

    From the 04 June battle to 11 June, the ask price fell 29.71%.

    From the battle on the 04th to the 11th, the buy price fell 18.74%

    That said the price of both ask/sell and bid/buy has not seen dramatic spikes either, remaining fairly flat, suggesting that prices are stable and that right now the oversupply isn’t causing deflation, but the market (the price drop) is signalling that should the oversupply continue and the spread starts to compress, deflation will occur.

    As in the above Spread % chart, the Skirmish Command Burst II’s price is showing more normal behavior for a commodity during wartime. That said the spike of SCBII after the 04 June battle is clearly showing that there was an interest in the module. The spike was an increase of 339.81% between 04 June and 06 June suggesting people were expecting to use them when they bought them. When there was no battle the price fell below where it was on the 15th of May.

    As we can see here around the same date, the Ask/Bid lines start closing the difference, suggesting that there was a noticeable demand for the module. However, unlike last week’s inversion with the Ferox Navy Issue and the market becoming oversaturated as in the 250mm Railgun II’s case, this jump in market orders looks more like arbitrage flipping starting near 08 June. Notice how the as the average ask volume goes up the average bid volume decreases. With the 250MMRII, the spread is much wider than the spread in the SCBII volume chart for the same dates, suggesting that there are more outstanding production issues with the railgun.

    Recommendations

    • Stop production of 250mm Railguns II, otherwise you will have to liquidate and the price will sink further and it risks becoming a quagmire with with plenty of finished product on the market that isn’t moving because it looks like this war is petering out, at least between the Horde and Goons.
    • Hold off on any plans to produce Skirmish Command Burst II. It is looking like it could also cause problems once there is too much on the market. Given that I do think the current volume pattern suggests arbitrage trading, thus production should done with the mind that the more you put on the market the price is going to sink and drop out the arbitrage traders out, but along with your profits.
    • Pay attention to current events and changes in wars. I am seeing that industrialists are getting into the market too late and it is costing you money on profits. Reddit and Twitter are two good war front news sources because without planning correctly, you won’t reap the benefits. Yes, this war has been different and weird, but ultimately the world cannot be fully predictable and you have to be on top of it to take advantage of.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this “war”? Do the Goons go after another alliance to make up for the lack of an opponient in the Pandemic Horde?

    Please remember that I will be releasing the (paid (in ISK)) report on June 20th on the entire Vulture doctrine fit. Be sure to subscribe to the blog to be one of the first to read it and my posts during the week.

    Remember to check out my Services page if you are interested in getting a trend report, production analysis, or a custom data report and contact me on my Contact Page.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution

  • Market Report Glance: Goons, Hordes, and Keeptars! Oh my!

    Market Report Glance: Goons, Hordes, and Keeptars! Oh my!

    Gird your loins, the Goons and Horde are back at it!

    At least two recent battles have resulted in the Goons destroying the Horde fleet, so for this week’s free Market Report, I am going to focus on the five ship types that had 40 or more losses in the June 04, 2025 battle in N3-JBX.

    Market Scope

    Commodities – Ships with 40+ losses on 04 June 2025 in N3-JBX allied with Goons and Horde

    The five ships are:

    • Ferox
    • Ferox Navy
    • Harpy
    • Rokh
    • Tempest Fleet
    • Vulture

    Sample Market – The Forge

    Timeframe – 01 May to 04 June 2025 23:30 USTZ EST

    Trends

    Only realized I have keeptared my way into these graphs after the fact and can’t access my computer until late.

    As you can see here, the Ferox Navy is really the most interesting trend line. While the Bid/Buy market remained stable over time, the Ask/Sell market spiked causing the spread % to 30D average spread to rise dramatically.

    As you can see there was a steep crash in Ferox Navy volume when the Goons dropped their Fortizar on the Horde’s Keepstar grid (24 May 2025). Given that both sides lost a total of 187 ships of this type in the 04 June battle, this was clearly the lead up to war being declared, but also in prep that massive scale battles were ahead.

    Analysis

    • Ferox Navy is an affordable faction battlecruiser that is heavy hitting but also enough of a tank that it can survive long enough on the battlefield to do lasting damage to the other side. Therefore, it is a strong choice for industrialists to manufacture, which the volume before the incident suggests: more availability = cheaper = more likely to not be too devastated financially when things go south. Given the Horde’s alleged, at least in the past, penchant for frugality and its large loss of Rokhs in the 03 June Battle, the emphasis on cost effectiveness drives at least some of the effect on the spike in prices.
    • Given that the sell volume is recovering, industrialists have picked up on the market but they have to be careful of driving prices down due to market saturation.

    Recommendations

    • Industrialists – Keep producing but don’t overstretch your capabilities and oversaturate the market, small batches of Ferox Navies will keep the money flowing and won’t cause steep declines in profit. If you aren’t already invested in Ferox Navy production, I don’t see an opening here for you.
    • Station Traders – If you are allied with either, you can go ahead and manipulate the market to your team’s advantage, but be warned there could be losses should the volume trends reverse and the price drops. If you don’t care and want to make them both suffer, start buying up ships in bulk and then flipping to make a nice profit.
    • Further Actions – Keep your eye on the Rokh hull. As of 15:15 on 05 June US EST there has no battle between the two, but with the downtime, this allows manufacturers to really make a dent in that market considering Horde’s extensive use of them, but check both ask/sell and bid/buy volumes before doing anything.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this latest escalation and if this post was helpful.

    This is a free and weekly sample of a T1 Market Trend Report, for more info on what I can offer you, check out my Services page.

    If you need more in-depth information on the hulls shown here then feel free to contact me either in game at ‘Matt Shigella’, or online @godislobster on Discord or email me at mattshigella@gmail.com and we can talk about how I can get you the info you need.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit – r/Eve

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    EveTools – 04 June 2025, 03 June 2025

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution