Auric Quanta Strategies

Tag: Goonswarm Federation

  • Too Cold to Hold: Ice Product Markets Aren’t Melting Yet

    Too Cold to Hold: Ice Product Markets Aren’t Melting Yet

    [Early Correction]: Goons are moving, just not to Delve. Wires got very crossed do to getting intel from different places, but also real life has been very active with a lot things going on, thus shifting attention there rather than in EVE.

    The economic war machine must feed, and I found some timely intel on ice and ice product trends on Reddit—perfectly coinciding with the revelation that Asher Elias has ordered the Goons to move.

    Earlier this week (Monday), I shared a preliminary graph and post on Reddit. Admittedly, my initial numbers were off due to some less-than-stellar programming on my part. However, the core market trend remained valid, and after finalizing the data through Tuesday, June 17, there’s plenty to report.

    Market Scope

    Commodities – Factional Ice Products

    • H – Isotopes
    • He – Isotopes
    • N – Isotopes
    • O – Isotopes

    Time Frame – 01 June to 17 June 2025

    Market – The Forge

    Observations

    The market for ice products has and is highly volital and the move order did nothing to help things.

    As you can see while the ask price stays relatively stable for everything but He-Isotopes. However, the bid prices for all shoot up.

    The spread percentage graph is a graph of valleys and peaks:

    He-Isotopes (June 15–17)

    • Bid Price: +23.56%
    • Ask Price: +44.65%
    • Spread %: +269.46%

    O-Isotopes (Same Time Frame)

    • Bid Price: +26.73%
    • Ask Price: +0.11% (flat)
    • Spread %: -222%

    For the Volume graphs, we see strong demand for He-Isotopes

    Standard inverted market, when Ellis gives the command to move the He-Isotopes Ask Volume jumps nearly 600%.

    The O-Isotope market shows inversion, but if you look back to the spread percent, this should create a situation where the ask price goes up because the margin should be greater than a loss. However, the ask price remains flat and the bid price spikes causing margins going far down.

    Analysis

    For O-Isotopes, demand appears driven by aggressive, even desperate, acquisition strategies. Ask prices have flatlined, creating a compression scenario, buyers want in, but sellers aren’t moving enough product.

    This fits with logistics trends: the Goon freight fleet relies heavily on Gallente ships, requiring large volumes of O-Isotopes. The limited ask volume isn’t enough to support a major fleet move. While traders briefly increased volume, that surge collapsed almost immediately.

    Meanwhile, the Amarr-based He-Isotope market is behaving more normally, following expected logic under stress.

    Recommendations

    For Traders:

    This is a bad market to be in, at least for O-Isotopes. If you’re late to the Helium play, that ship may have already sailed. I expect the market to correct soon as the move completes. If you are already committed and are selling, raise your prices ASAP, otherwise you might miss the benefits.

    For Miners:

    Now’s your moment. Hit the high-sec factional ice belts hard. Push back against bots, farmers, and bullies. With null sec heating up again, we may be watching the start of a “Roman Empiring” scenario, where Goon sovereignty stretches too thin.
    (Special thanks to u/PomegranateSlow5624 for rallying miners in Monday’s Reddit thread.)

    The command to move into Delve didn’t just ignite military logistics, it sent shockwaves through the ice product markets. The bid-ask spread behavior, volume shifts, and compression dynamics reveal deeper patterns about faction fleet preferences, supply chain stress, and speculative surges.

    Helium-Isotopes may have already crested, but Oxygen-Isotopes are showing signs of dangerous compression—a situation where traders risk squeezing margins into the red, especially as ask volumes stay stagnant.

    I will continue monitoring these disruptions across regional markets and commodity types. This analysis is part of my ongoing commitment to delivering grounded, actionable economic intelligence for capsuleers who want to stay ahead of the curve.

    Want targeted insights for your corp, alliance, or industrial logistics?
    Commission a custom market report or subscribe to weekly updates at auricquantastrategies.space

    Spotted something in the market I didn’t?
    I welcome feedback, counterpoints, and collaboration. Let’s make sense of New Eden’s economy together.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution

  • Market Report Glance:First Look into Auric Intel Reports: Warfare Vulture Doctrine Fit – High Slots

    Market Report Glance:First Look into Auric Intel Reports: Warfare Vulture Doctrine Fit – High Slots

    So I will releasing a report on the (Horde) Vulture Doctrine Fit for ISK on Friday June 20th. The report will cover all the modules in the doctrine based on kill reports during the June 04 Battle for the Vulture, the preferred Command Fleet Ship.

    The ship has bonuses for railguns which I will be highlighting the 250mm Railgun II in this post today, along with the Skirmish Command Burst II module.

    Market Scope

    Commodity – 250mm Railgun II and Skirmish Command Burst II

    Sample Regional Market – The Forge

    Time frame – 15 May 2025 to 11 June 2025 (12:30 USTZ EST)

    Observations/Analysis

    The 250mm Railgun II has seen some things during this war and the trends in The Forge is an interesting case of oversupply (ask volume Increased 466.24% from 04 June to 11 June) while not experiencing strong price spread disruption.

    Overall the price is above historical levels but both the ask/sell and bid/buy prices have fallen dramatically (Railgun is in Blue):

    From the 04 June battle to 11 June, the ask price fell 29.71%.

    From the battle on the 04th to the 11th, the buy price fell 18.74%

    That said the price of both ask/sell and bid/buy has not seen dramatic spikes either, remaining fairly flat, suggesting that prices are stable and that right now the oversupply isn’t causing deflation, but the market (the price drop) is signalling that should the oversupply continue and the spread starts to compress, deflation will occur.

    As in the above Spread % chart, the Skirmish Command Burst II’s price is showing more normal behavior for a commodity during wartime. That said the spike of SCBII after the 04 June battle is clearly showing that there was an interest in the module. The spike was an increase of 339.81% between 04 June and 06 June suggesting people were expecting to use them when they bought them. When there was no battle the price fell below where it was on the 15th of May.

    As we can see here around the same date, the Ask/Bid lines start closing the difference, suggesting that there was a noticeable demand for the module. However, unlike last week’s inversion with the Ferox Navy Issue and the market becoming oversaturated as in the 250mm Railgun II’s case, this jump in market orders looks more like arbitrage flipping starting near 08 June. Notice how the as the average ask volume goes up the average bid volume decreases. With the 250MMRII, the spread is much wider than the spread in the SCBII volume chart for the same dates, suggesting that there are more outstanding production issues with the railgun.

    Recommendations

    • Stop production of 250mm Railguns II, otherwise you will have to liquidate and the price will sink further and it risks becoming a quagmire with with plenty of finished product on the market that isn’t moving because it looks like this war is petering out, at least between the Horde and Goons.
    • Hold off on any plans to produce Skirmish Command Burst II. It is looking like it could also cause problems once there is too much on the market. Given that I do think the current volume pattern suggests arbitrage trading, thus production should done with the mind that the more you put on the market the price is going to sink and drop out the arbitrage traders out, but along with your profits.
    • Pay attention to current events and changes in wars. I am seeing that industrialists are getting into the market too late and it is costing you money on profits. Reddit and Twitter are two good war front news sources because without planning correctly, you won’t reap the benefits. Yes, this war has been different and weird, but ultimately the world cannot be fully predictable and you have to be on top of it to take advantage of.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this “war”? Do the Goons go after another alliance to make up for the lack of an opponient in the Pandemic Horde?

    Please remember that I will be releasing the (paid (in ISK)) report on June 20th on the entire Vulture doctrine fit. Be sure to subscribe to the blog to be one of the first to read it and my posts during the week.

    Remember to check out my Services page if you are interested in getting a trend report, production analysis, or a custom data report and contact me on my Contact Page.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution

  • War Commentary: a bite-sized blog on the progression of Horde vs Goons

    War Commentary: a bite-sized blog on the progression of Horde vs Goons

    While the war started off with a bang, it is clearly going to end on a whimper (at least not on r/eve).

    While most EVE players live for blowing up ships and Keepstars, at this point, it’s actually looking like Goonswarm is mostly fighting a one-sided war and, honestly, now that I think about it makes the Horde look, well dignified and perhaps justified.

    It’s one thing to glass patrolled and heavily fortified sov null, quite another to let your rental sov null change hands. After all, the Horde, probably makes good money already, that losing Insmother isn’t going to bankrupt them. While losses are always to be expected, especially in war, I would argue at some point someone did the math that losing more ships in terms of production, fitting, and skill points is going to be more expensive then losing several Keepstars and a handful of renters that probably are going to rent from the Goons or whoever ultimately ends up controlling the system.

    I also think that watching the Goons glassing a clearly abandoned system with reckless disregard for self-awareness is kind of cringe at this point.

    Is the war over? Honestly? It feels like Goons made their point, Horde said “No, thanks” and everyone will autopilot home tomorrow satisfied and dream up the next thing to be salty about.

    At least the ISK is flowing. See you Thursday night with my Market Report.

  • Wartime Economies: Swimming with the Ferox Navy Fishes

    Wartime Economies: Swimming with the Ferox Navy Fishes

    So as we have had a day without a scrimish between the expansionist Goonswarm/Imperium (Goons)and the PandemicHorde (Horde) after the Goons erected a Foritzer on the Horde’s Keepstar Grid in The Great Wildlands last month. Tonight, the Foritzer completes its achoring, basically meaning it is either fight or flight for the Horde (my intel has the Horde running, but who knows…).

    If successful, what will that mean for null sec, the Goons’ plans, and if PandemicHorde can keep going after all the dust settles remains to be seen, I, however, am interested in the ISK numbers of the Ferox Navy Issue, which was the hull that had the greatest destruction across both sides in the 04 June battle.

    I pulled the updated market data today and saw the final total volumes of the Ask/Sell and Bid/Buy markets of the Ferox Navy from yesterday, the 05th, and thought I would show my findings before the big party tonight, some time around 11pm EST USTZ.

    Observations

    Here we see that the inversion of the market, that I warned against, happens with a supply that begins to outstrip the demand for buyers. Sellers (the ask line) now can’t find a market in which support top dollar ask prices and either fill a much cheaper buy order or put up the hull on for a lower profit they could have gotten, but one that has diminishing returns.

    We see that in the next graphs:

    In the Ask Graph we see the big spikes, but then we see a drop after 2 June. When the Ask/Buy volumes switch with more Ask on the market, we see that price start to drop.

    The buy/bid price is also because now there are more buyers that can wait for the bids to be filled and they can command a better price because the going ask is now effectively now too high.

    As you can see, as the bid orders raise in price and when the ask orders shrink in price the spread changes are dramatic.

    As you can see here on the 27th of May, circled in fuchsia on both charts, the lowest ask volume is also when the change in the spread is largest, suggesting a rise in the ask price. The same thing happens on 2 June, with the points circled in purple.

    Analysis

    If you were an industrialist that got going with Ferox Navies after the Goons dropped the Fortizer, you probably caught the first wave if you were early enough. If you started producing after the Goons declared war, you probably caught the second wave after a couple of days of waiting. But if you were not in the market by 02 June, your luck ran out and the volume rises to the inversion of the market.

    From June 02nd and June 05th, the sell price dropped 15.42% as the volume went up 54.62%, showing just how fickle the market can be when there is a big war and a large destruction of hulls.

    Overall, it seems that the Ferox Navies were purchased by an alliance early on as there is that large glut of immediate sells and that crashed dramatically once the Goons dropped the Fortizer.

    It does look like the Goons were preparing for war before the Fortizer event, putting in bid orders for the hull well before war was ever declared and the Ferox Navies needed. The Horde went after the Rokh initially and that fleet was decimated, forcing them into the Ferox Navies in the 04 June battle, which was still resoundly destroyed by the Goons.

    Recommendations

    • Start your production of Ferox Navies (unless the doctrines change) at the first sign of trouble between null sec alliances. The producers that started production after June 02, trying to capitalize on the day’s jump, a couple of days after the war declaration, were way too late and effectively lost money in The Forge markets.
    • If you are central intel for your null sec alliance, keep your eyes on the market orders, there was movement way before anything was happening with the Goons, and while there is no guarantee those markets are moving because of another alliance, keeping tabs on doctrine hulls in the market can be a sly way of predicting movement of, well, at least someone.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this war and potential battle for the ages? Did you get caught in that market volume inversion and now operating at a loss?

    If you need more in-depth information on the hull or others (Hearing there’s a need for the Vulture among both or just one) then feel free to contact me either in game at ‘Matt Shigella’, or online @godislobster on Discord or email me at mattshigella@gmail.com and we can talk about how I can get you the info you need.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    EveTools – 04 June 2025, 03 June 2025

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution