Welcome back to Auric Quanta Strategies’ Market Analysis blog. I have been away in real life enjoying my summer and ready to head into the fall strong. I am going to ease back into posting and only post on Thursday for the next few weeks and we will see how the rest of my schedule in real life, corp and business life, and FFXIV all mingle, because somehow I have to keep moving mountains while getting enough sleep.
The July Monthly Economic Report came out this Monday, the 18th of August, which is very late. Supposedly, CCP had issues with their data processing, which seems odd to me that they have such issues given the vast amounts of data they produce with ESI.
The hot topic on everyone’s mind is the status of Pyerite. CCP buffed the output of Pyerite by 10% from Scordites and Morduniums on the 31st, after buffing it in late June.
Pyerite is a foundational mineral in T1 hulls and modules, though T2 hulls and modules are not as constrained by the lack of pyerite on the public markets. So without pyerite, industry begins to halt and there in lies the problem. No ships and modules to build, it becomes more expensive to fly.
Other minerals continue to push the Mineral Price Index down, but the price of Pyerite remains fixed at around 30 ISK, which CCP has deemed too high of cost.
This calculus is informed by the fact that production, both primary (reactions, ore reprocessing, PI, the like) and secondary (modules and hulls), is down in terms of their price indexes and very dramatic fall in terms of production value. However this indicates that the markets have not lost a lot of value, and thus production remains to be viable in the market.
But what does this mean for pyerite and CCP’s push to drive down prices?
Effectively, CCP is trying to push commodities and finished products’ prices lower to effectively make it cheaper and easier to fly, which means more ISK flow and, potentially, more PLEX purchases and redemption.
However, given the multiple buffs of pyerite, supply and demand have not fully reconciled. Looking at the graphs below, there is an uptick in mining value and there is an upswing in asteroid mining volume in null sec after a significant decrease in June suggesting that the alliance shuffle and moves have completed and mining resumes at rates more in-line with numbers from March.
However, key in this is that null sec mining is up, not high sec, and given that asteroid ore that melts into pyerite is not very common in null, means CCP’s attempts to get miners out on the belts will have limited success, at least outside of high sec.
That may be strategic on CCP’s part to get new players a piece of the action they need to get going into solidifying their engagement. The moneyed oldbies and industrial titans need to realize they cannot sustain EVE’s business model indefinitely and that investors in Pearl Abyss cannot wait much longer for EVE to remain a niche of a niche world. That’s the unfortunate reality of late stage capitalism.
Additionally, the MER does not take into account private contracts and corp/alliance buybacks, so it might be making pyerite from CCP’s point of view scarcer than it really is on the ground. This then would explain why the Mineral Price Index and production price indexes are not falling at an even pace. This again suggests that CCP wants newbros actively producing and often times don’t have a strong corp presence.
Takeaways
Miners – Get out on the belts and pop those R4 moons. This is prime opportunity time to get lots of ore in high sec. Low sec also needs mining activity but considering low sec is as, if not more, dangerous than null and sov null these days, do take a few big guns out with you. Low sec has more Mordunium, which reduces into purely pyerite, so if you don’t have access to R4 moons, this is a prime reason to be out in low sec.
Industrialists – No big takeaways other than continuing to produce at the rates you are at right now. If you are short on pyerite and don’t have access to cheap pyerite and/or don’t feel like dealing with the public markets, shift your lines to less intensive pyerite blueprints and focus on salvage now that has effectively lost value on the market given the recent changes in exploration.
Newbros – It’s your time to shine. Get those Ventures mining Scordite, but also fire up the manufacturing modules and get producing. To be super successful takes time, but give it a go and see how it feels!
In short, we will have to sit tight and see how the recent buff on pyerite is ultimately consumed in production in August but we won’t know until the August MER report is released next month.
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