Auric Quanta Strategies

Tag: Nullsec Politics

  • Heat Index of 37°C: O-Isotopes Heating Up

    Heat Index of 37°C: O-Isotopes Heating Up

    It is hot, humid, and sunny today where I live, but also things in Jita are also hot on the Ice Product market with O-Isotopes correcting course as Null Sec alliances play musical regions. Let’s get right into the graphs for today’s short update post.

    Market Scope

    Commodity: O-Isotopes

    Time Frame: June 11-22

    Market: The Forge

    Observations

    First a clarification, I have been using the ask/bid/volume high values, however it was not the best measure I could be using to understand the markets long term or shifting through the noise of prices or volumes that were outliers. Going forward, I’ll be using ask/bid/volume average values to better track long term trends, and find the signals with greater clarity. Better Analysis = Better Outcomes

    As you can see in the graph below the Ask Price has plateaued twice, but on the 20th the price started rising. From 17-22 of June, the price has risen 13.08%.

    The bid price has also been rising, however, that has only risen 3.72% since the 17th, which was the end date to my Thursday market post, which has only plateaued on the 21st.

    The compression from the flat ask, rising bid price from last post has rebounded and while the number is less than the initial rebound the spread % difference is still very high, with a rise of 1626%.

    If we look at the Volume Dynamics of O-Isotopes, we are seeing a closing in on inversion again. Clearly, miners feel comfortable with now selling their refined ice products on the Ask market rather than going directly to the buyers that need the ice.

    Analysis

    Clearly with multiple moves happening in Null Sec, the price is increasing, but we are seeing the rise in ask volume. The abundance of buy orders is now for the most part over given moves are finishing their final stages and thus O-Isotopes are no longer needed.

    Miners will have to be careful not to over sell the market because that could create a problem for traders, so given the trends in the market, I am forecasting that the market will invert, driving prices and spread down once again.

    Recommendations

    • Miners can still sell directly to buyers, but be careful in adding to the Ask Volume.
    • Traders, this is not an investment, unless you are going to buy into the dip, but honestly, I would hold off.

    Until the market can stabilize, I suggest waiting for any real investment either in product or trading. Additionally, I expect a dip in spread, however, I don’t expect a deep negative spread coming like on the 17th, but given the fact the Null Blocs are solidifying their new territories, demand and price pressures should be easing on both sides and there should be a stabilization of the ask/bid prices.

    Part of a Null bloc, what is your take on this? Is the price growth hampering your wallet? Miners, what is your preference, either sell directly to buyers, or are you going more towards the ask market? Comment below.

  • War Commentary: a bite-sized blog on the progression of Horde vs Goons

    War Commentary: a bite-sized blog on the progression of Horde vs Goons

    While the war started off with a bang, it is clearly going to end on a whimper (at least not on r/eve).

    While most EVE players live for blowing up ships and Keepstars, at this point, it’s actually looking like Goonswarm is mostly fighting a one-sided war and, honestly, now that I think about it makes the Horde look, well dignified and perhaps justified.

    It’s one thing to glass patrolled and heavily fortified sov null, quite another to let your rental sov null change hands. After all, the Horde, probably makes good money already, that losing Insmother isn’t going to bankrupt them. While losses are always to be expected, especially in war, I would argue at some point someone did the math that losing more ships in terms of production, fitting, and skill points is going to be more expensive then losing several Keepstars and a handful of renters that probably are going to rent from the Goons or whoever ultimately ends up controlling the system.

    I also think that watching the Goons glassing a clearly abandoned system with reckless disregard for self-awareness is kind of cringe at this point.

    Is the war over? Honestly? It feels like Goons made their point, Horde said “No, thanks” and everyone will autopilot home tomorrow satisfied and dream up the next thing to be salty about.

    At least the ISK is flowing. See you Thursday night with my Market Report.