Before I drop the Auric Intel Report preview later this week, here’s a snapshot of the Vulture market:
📉 Ask prices down 30% (28 May – 15 June)
📉 Bid prices down 22% (28 May – 15 June)
We’re seeing fast-moving price action and likely early signals of a doctrine shake-up or at least a signal the Horde is uninterested in the Goons. Stay sharp.
🗓 Friday: Report preview and goes live
📦 Later this month: Full Vulture doctrine breakdown
→ Make sure you’re subscribed so you don’t miss the drop.
So I will releasing a report on the (Horde) Vulture Doctrine Fit for ISK on Friday June 20th. The report will cover all the modules in the doctrine based on kill reports during the June 04 Battle for the Vulture, the preferred Command Fleet Ship.
The ship has bonuses for railguns which I will be highlighting the 250mm Railgun II in this post today, along with the Skirmish Command Burst II module.
Commodity – 250mm Railgun II and Skirmish Command Burst II
Sample Regional Market – The Forge
Time frame – 15 May 2025 to 11 June 2025 (12:30 USTZ EST)
The 250mm Railgun II has seen some things during this war and the trends in The Forge is an interesting case of oversupply (ask volume Increased 466.24% from 04 June to 11 June) while not experiencing strong price spread disruption.
Overall the price is above historical levels but both the ask/sell and bid/buy prices have fallen dramatically (Railgun is in Blue):
From the 04 June battle to 11 June, the ask price fell 29.71%.
From the battle on the 04th to the 11th, the buy price fell 18.74%
That said the price of both ask/sell and bid/buy has not seen dramatic spikes either, remaining fairly flat, suggesting that prices are stable and that right now the oversupply isn’t causing deflation, but the market (the price drop) is signalling that should the oversupply continue and the spread starts to compress, deflation will occur.
As in the above Spread % chart, the Skirmish Command Burst II’s price is showing more normal behavior for a commodity during wartime. That said the spike of SCBII after the 04 June battle is clearly showing that there was an interest in the module. The spike was an increase of 339.81% between 04 June and 06 June suggesting people were expecting to use them when they bought them. When there was no battle the price fell below where it was on the 15th of May.
As we can see here around the same date, the Ask/Bid lines start closing the difference, suggesting that there was a noticeable demand for the module. However, unlike last week’s inversion with the Ferox Navy Issue and the market becoming oversaturated as in the 250mm Railgun II’s case, this jump in market orders looks more like arbitrage flipping starting near 08 June. Notice how the as the average ask volume goes up the average bid volume decreases. With the 250MMRII, the spread is much wider than the spread in the SCBII volume chart for the same dates, suggesting that there are more outstanding production issues with the railgun.
Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this “war”? Do the Goons go after another alliance to make up for the lack of an opponient in the Pandemic Horde?
Please remember that I will be releasing the (paid (in ISK)) report on June 20th on the entire Vulture doctrine fit. Be sure to subscribe to the blog to be one of the first to read it and my posts during the week.
Remember to check out my Services page if you are interested in getting a trend report, production analysis, or a custom data report and contact me on my Contact Page.
Background Information
Market Data and Code Framework
Python
Jupyter Labs
Anaconda Distribution
While the war started off with a bang, it is clearly going to end on a whimper (at least not on r/eve).
While most EVE players live for blowing up ships and Keepstars, at this point, it’s actually looking like Goonswarm is mostly fighting a one-sided war and, honestly, now that I think about it makes the Horde look, well dignified and perhaps justified.
It’s one thing to glass patrolled and heavily fortified sov null, quite another to let your rental sov null change hands. After all, the Horde, probably makes good money already, that losing Insmother isn’t going to bankrupt them. While losses are always to be expected, especially in war, I would argue at some point someone did the math that losing more ships in terms of production, fitting, and skill points is going to be more expensive then losing several Keepstars and a handful of renters that probably are going to rent from the Goons or whoever ultimately ends up controlling the system.
I also think that watching the Goons glassing a clearly abandoned system with reckless disregard for self-awareness is kind of cringe at this point.
Is the war over? Honestly? It feels like Goons made their point, Horde said “No, thanks” and everyone will autopilot home tomorrow satisfied and dream up the next thing to be salty about.
At least the ISK is flowing. See you Thursday night with my Market Report.
So as we have had a day without a scrimish between the expansionist Goonswarm/Imperium (Goons)and the PandemicHorde (Horde) after the Goons erected a Foritzer on the Horde’s Keepstar Grid in The Great Wildlands last month. Tonight, the Foritzer completes its achoring, basically meaning it is either fight or flight for the Horde (my intel has the Horde running, but who knows…).
If successful, what will that mean for null sec, the Goons’ plans, and if PandemicHorde can keep going after all the dust settles remains to be seen, I, however, am interested in the ISK numbers of the Ferox Navy Issue, which was the hull that had the greatest destruction across both sides in the 04 June battle.
I pulled the updated market data today and saw the final total volumes of the Ask/Sell and Bid/Buy markets of the Ferox Navy from yesterday, the 05th, and thought I would show my findings before the big party tonight, some time around 11pm EST USTZ.
Here we see that the inversion of the market, that I warned against, happens with a supply that begins to outstrip the demand for buyers. Sellers (the ask line) now can’t find a market in which support top dollar ask prices and either fill a much cheaper buy order or put up the hull on for a lower profit they could have gotten, but one that has diminishing returns.
We see that in the next graphs:
In the Ask Graph we see the big spikes, but then we see a drop after 2 June. When the Ask/Buy volumes switch with more Ask on the market, we see that price start to drop.
The buy/bid price is also because now there are more buyers that can wait for the bids to be filled and they can command a better price because the going ask is now effectively now too high.
As you can see, as the bid orders raise in price and when the ask orders shrink in price the spread changes are dramatic.
As you can see here on the 27th of May, circled in fuchsia on both charts, the lowest ask volume is also when the change in the spread is largest, suggesting a rise in the ask price. The same thing happens on 2 June, with the points circled in purple.
If you were an industrialist that got going with Ferox Navies after the Goons dropped the Fortizer, you probably caught the first wave if you were early enough. If you started producing after the Goons declared war, you probably caught the second wave after a couple of days of waiting. But if you were not in the market by 02 June, your luck ran out and the volume rises to the inversion of the market.
From June 02nd and June 05th, the sell price dropped 15.42% as the volume went up 54.62%, showing just how fickle the market can be when there is a big war and a large destruction of hulls.
Overall, it seems that the Ferox Navies were purchased by an alliance early on as there is that large glut of immediate sells and that crashed dramatically once the Goons dropped the Fortizer.
It does look like the Goons were preparing for war before the Fortizer event, putting in bid orders for the hull well before war was ever declared and the Ferox Navies needed. The Horde went after the Rokh initially and that fleet was decimated, forcing them into the Ferox Navies in the 04 June battle, which was still resoundly destroyed by the Goons.
Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this war and potential battle for the ages? Did you get caught in that market volume inversion and now operating at a loss?
If you need more in-depth information on the hull or others (Hearing there’s a need for the Vulture among both or just one) then feel free to contact me either in game at ‘Matt Shigella’, or online @godislobster on Discord or email me at mattshigella@gmail.com and we can talk about how I can get you the info you need.
Background Information
Market Data and Code Framework
EveTools – 04 June 2025, 03 June 2025
Python
Jupyter Labs
Anaconda Distribution
Auric Quanta Strategies 