Auric Quanta Strategies

Tag: Reddit

  • Too Cold to Hold: Ice Product Markets Aren’t Melting Yet

    Too Cold to Hold: Ice Product Markets Aren’t Melting Yet

    [Early Correction]: Goons are moving, just not to Delve. Wires got very crossed do to getting intel from different places, but also real life has been very active with a lot things going on, thus shifting attention there rather than in EVE.

    The economic war machine must feed, and I found some timely intel on ice and ice product trends on Reddit—perfectly coinciding with the revelation that Asher Elias has ordered the Goons to move.

    Earlier this week (Monday), I shared a preliminary graph and post on Reddit. Admittedly, my initial numbers were off due to some less-than-stellar programming on my part. However, the core market trend remained valid, and after finalizing the data through Tuesday, June 17, there’s plenty to report.

    Market Scope

    Commodities – Factional Ice Products

    • H – Isotopes
    • He – Isotopes
    • N – Isotopes
    • O – Isotopes

    Time Frame – 01 June to 17 June 2025

    Market – The Forge

    Observations

    The market for ice products has and is highly volital and the move order did nothing to help things.

    As you can see while the ask price stays relatively stable for everything but He-Isotopes. However, the bid prices for all shoot up.

    The spread percentage graph is a graph of valleys and peaks:

    He-Isotopes (June 15–17)

    • Bid Price: +23.56%
    • Ask Price: +44.65%
    • Spread %: +269.46%

    O-Isotopes (Same Time Frame)

    • Bid Price: +26.73%
    • Ask Price: +0.11% (flat)
    • Spread %: -222%

    For the Volume graphs, we see strong demand for He-Isotopes

    Standard inverted market, when Ellis gives the command to move the He-Isotopes Ask Volume jumps nearly 600%.

    The O-Isotope market shows inversion, but if you look back to the spread percent, this should create a situation where the ask price goes up because the margin should be greater than a loss. However, the ask price remains flat and the bid price spikes causing margins going far down.

    Analysis

    For O-Isotopes, demand appears driven by aggressive, even desperate, acquisition strategies. Ask prices have flatlined, creating a compression scenario, buyers want in, but sellers aren’t moving enough product.

    This fits with logistics trends: the Goon freight fleet relies heavily on Gallente ships, requiring large volumes of O-Isotopes. The limited ask volume isn’t enough to support a major fleet move. While traders briefly increased volume, that surge collapsed almost immediately.

    Meanwhile, the Amarr-based He-Isotope market is behaving more normally, following expected logic under stress.

    Recommendations

    For Traders:

    This is a bad market to be in, at least for O-Isotopes. If you’re late to the Helium play, that ship may have already sailed. I expect the market to correct soon as the move completes. If you are already committed and are selling, raise your prices ASAP, otherwise you might miss the benefits.

    For Miners:

    Now’s your moment. Hit the high-sec factional ice belts hard. Push back against bots, farmers, and bullies. With null sec heating up again, we may be watching the start of a “Roman Empiring” scenario, where Goon sovereignty stretches too thin.
    (Special thanks to u/PomegranateSlow5624 for rallying miners in Monday’s Reddit thread.)

    The command to move into Delve didn’t just ignite military logistics, it sent shockwaves through the ice product markets. The bid-ask spread behavior, volume shifts, and compression dynamics reveal deeper patterns about faction fleet preferences, supply chain stress, and speculative surges.

    Helium-Isotopes may have already crested, but Oxygen-Isotopes are showing signs of dangerous compression—a situation where traders risk squeezing margins into the red, especially as ask volumes stay stagnant.

    I will continue monitoring these disruptions across regional markets and commodity types. This analysis is part of my ongoing commitment to delivering grounded, actionable economic intelligence for capsuleers who want to stay ahead of the curve.

    Want targeted insights for your corp, alliance, or industrial logistics?
    Commission a custom market report or subscribe to weekly updates at auricquantastrategies.space

    Spotted something in the market I didn’t?
    I welcome feedback, counterpoints, and collaboration. Let’s make sense of New Eden’s economy together.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit

    Twitter

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution

  • How One Comment Rebuilt My Market Strategy

    So yesterday when I posted my data from my blog post on r/Eve on the High Slots of the Vulture Doctrine Fit, I got a great response and it was full great comments and conversations that forced me to really reevaluate my approach to my data and my recommendations for you all.

    So I wanted to highlight and address some of the comments directly here on the blog in order to keep the conversation going.

    The Numbers

    • 14k Views in <48 hours
    • 39 (including my responses) High Quality Comments within 24 hours of posting
    • 87% upvote ratio

    The Comment That Changed Everything

    This comment here forced a full reevaluation of my data setup. Up until now, I’ve been using a lightweight set up, using the Adam4Eve API, to get quick and reactive signals. The goal in using this data for my blogs and Reddit posts was and is to deliver timely, actionable insights based on accessible data, but quickly put together. While this data can provide short-term market move signals, they aren’t the best signals I can produce for sharper, more powerful recommendations.

    To that end, I will move away from APIs and move towards building a local, queryable database using the half hour market snapshots from EVE Ref. That said, if I need quick insights, the API is pretty much always there. The plan was always to move towards a more powerful set up, but this comment forced my hand.

    This will allow me to go beyond basic volume and price snapshots, but deeper analysis like volume-weighted average prices (VWAP), margin bands, and trade velocity.

    Many thanks to the valuable feedback from u/, I am excited to evolve my approach and deliver stronger insights and analysis for traders and industrialists.

    The Comment That Made Me Blush and Want an MBA

    Yes.

    I am trying to effectively live out a dream of being a financial analyst and this just tickled me.

    Long story short, I am more of a “save the world” type then a “plunder the world of its riches” type, but I have strong business acumen and a strong inclination towards workaholism. I would excel in the finance sector, but I’d burn out so fast.

    Burnout is not an option any longer for my life, and while I would love being a finance bro in NYC, I am also not in love with the long hours and general toxic work cultures of Wall Street and Midtown.

    So I play one in EVE, because that is my lane and I get to work on my skills for something I do also feel called to and make the world a better place. Plus I am just a data nerd and any data is actually kinda fun once you get the hang of it.

    To bring it back around — while this post turned into a bit of a reflection on method and motivation, my core goal remains the same: to provide timely, actionable, and increasingly powerful market insights for EVE traders and industrialists.

    The community feedback, especially on Reddit, has pushed me to raise the bar — moving beyond quick API snapshots and toward deeper, more rigorous analysis using EVE Ref market history. Expect upcoming reports to include metrics like VWAP, margin bands, and trade velocity, designed to support real in-game decisions, not just theorycrafting.

    If you’re into the econ side of EVE, or just want better tools for your trade strategy, subscribe to the blog or jump into the conversation on Reddit — your feedback is shaping this in real time.

    Let’s keep raking in that sweet ISK. o7

  • Market Report Glance: Goons, Hordes, and Keeptars! Oh my!

    Market Report Glance: Goons, Hordes, and Keeptars! Oh my!

    Gird your loins, the Goons and Horde are back at it!

    At least two recent battles have resulted in the Goons destroying the Horde fleet, so for this week’s free Market Report, I am going to focus on the five ship types that had 40 or more losses in the June 04, 2025 battle in N3-JBX.

    Market Scope

    Commodities – Ships with 40+ losses on 04 June 2025 in N3-JBX allied with Goons and Horde

    The five ships are:

    • Ferox
    • Ferox Navy
    • Harpy
    • Rokh
    • Tempest Fleet
    • Vulture

    Sample Market – The Forge

    Timeframe – 01 May to 04 June 2025 23:30 USTZ EST

    Trends

    Only realized I have keeptared my way into these graphs after the fact and can’t access my computer until late.

    As you can see here, the Ferox Navy is really the most interesting trend line. While the Bid/Buy market remained stable over time, the Ask/Sell market spiked causing the spread % to 30D average spread to rise dramatically.

    As you can see there was a steep crash in Ferox Navy volume when the Goons dropped their Fortizar on the Horde’s Keepstar grid (24 May 2025). Given that both sides lost a total of 187 ships of this type in the 04 June battle, this was clearly the lead up to war being declared, but also in prep that massive scale battles were ahead.

    Analysis

    • Ferox Navy is an affordable faction battlecruiser that is heavy hitting but also enough of a tank that it can survive long enough on the battlefield to do lasting damage to the other side. Therefore, it is a strong choice for industrialists to manufacture, which the volume before the incident suggests: more availability = cheaper = more likely to not be too devastated financially when things go south. Given the Horde’s alleged, at least in the past, penchant for frugality and its large loss of Rokhs in the 03 June Battle, the emphasis on cost effectiveness drives at least some of the effect on the spike in prices.
    • Given that the sell volume is recovering, industrialists have picked up on the market but they have to be careful of driving prices down due to market saturation.

    Recommendations

    • Industrialists – Keep producing but don’t overstretch your capabilities and oversaturate the market, small batches of Ferox Navies will keep the money flowing and won’t cause steep declines in profit. If you aren’t already invested in Ferox Navy production, I don’t see an opening here for you.
    • Station Traders – If you are allied with either, you can go ahead and manipulate the market to your team’s advantage, but be warned there could be losses should the volume trends reverse and the price drops. If you don’t care and want to make them both suffer, start buying up ships in bulk and then flipping to make a nice profit.
    • Further Actions – Keep your eye on the Rokh hull. As of 15:15 on 05 June US EST there has no battle between the two, but with the downtime, this allows manufacturers to really make a dent in that market considering Horde’s extensive use of them, but check both ask/sell and bid/buy volumes before doing anything.

    Let me know down below what your thoughts are on this latest escalation and if this post was helpful.

    This is a free and weekly sample of a T1 Market Trend Report, for more info on what I can offer you, check out my Services page.

    If you need more in-depth information on the hulls shown here then feel free to contact me either in game at ‘Matt Shigella’, or online @godislobster on Discord or email me at mattshigella@gmail.com and we can talk about how I can get you the info you need.

    Sources

    Background Information

    Reddit – r/Eve

    Market Data and Code Framework

    Adam4Eve API

    EveRef

    EveTools – 04 June 2025, 03 June 2025

    Python

    • matlibplot.pyplot, pandas

    Jupyter Labs

    Anaconda Distribution